Under this scenario, the Lukashenka regime would fall apart in a few hours.
Russian political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev points out in an article on politoboz.com that Lukashenka has failed to regain his popularity over the past eight months:
- Against the backdrop of the unfolding spring, Minsk is living a strange nightlife. At dusk, hundreds and thousands of residents of the Belarusian capital come out of their apartments and houses to hang white-red-white flags and ribbons and post leaflets.
The mood of Minskers is critical, because sooner or later, the fate of Lukashenka and his government will be decided in Minsk. It is unavoidable - the decay process becomes irreversible. Over the last eight months Lukashenka has not and will not be able to win back the sympathy of the main protest potential - the so-called "victory electorate."
The political scientist points out that the regime could make a mistake, which would become a trigger for new protests:
- Some obvious facts suggest that the Minsk underground is likely to replace "ribbon flyers" with new solutions and new goals. Usually a very hard and important goal is chosen. At the same time, the Resistance will probably not give up street protests, but they should be clearly focused on a specific goal and on some kind of victory, albeit tactical. Then, as practice shows, a "chain reaction" will be triggered and the regime will start to collapse.
It is worth recalling how in the winter of 2016-2017 the stubborn pushing of the "law on parasites" caused the "Belarusian Spring". So, one cannot ignore the factor of surprise, which could become a trigger for the protests. In this case, Lukashenka's regime will collapse in several hours. There is an enormous number of such cases in history. At that, there is not a single historical fact when authoritarian leaders were able to retain their power. Not a single one...