The Hardest Blow to Lukashenka

The U.S. sanctions provide for a mechanism to punish even an attempt to bypass them.

Former Secretary General of the National Olympic Committee of Belarus Anatoli Kotov told in a commentary to Radio Svaboda about the consequences of Washington's actions for Lukashenka's regime.

The Americans will punish even for an attempt to bypass sanctions.

- First of all, any sanctions are a blow to the image. The fact that sanctions were simultaneously imposed by the U.S., Great Britain and Canada is the strongest signal for the regime in Belarus, and, more importantly, for businesses that do business with illegitimate authorities in Belarus," said Anatoli Kotov.

Image losses hit harder than the economic ones. Everybody first approved and then criticized the sanctions introduced by the European Union against Lukashenka's regime. They told that there were holes, and it was true. The most important thing is that the sanctions are announced and put into effect.

The same situation regards the US sanctions. The geography of sanctions - the UK and the US - is usually more decisive for business than European sanctions. Although Belarus trades more with Europe, the main payment currency is preferably the dollar. This now poses a major threat to those businesses on the sanctions list.

Moreover, a new Executives Order provides for sectoral sanctions. This is such a signal for the future. Sectoral sanctions come into effect in several months.

This way of the United States and its partners in Europe, Great Britain and Canada demonstrates the absence of any sense in doing business with Aliaksandr Lukashenka's regime. One day or another someone will do business with a sub-sanctioned sector or enterprise, and the US sanctions already provide for the so-called secondary sanctions.

This is the punishment of individuals or legal entities that do business with the sub-sanctioned Belarusian enterprises.

What is more, the U.S. sanctions provide for a mechanism to punish even an attempt to bypass them.

One can say it is the most important image blow. Those on the sanctions list from August 9, 2021, will suffer. After a while, the sectors of the economy that will be under sanctions according to the new Executive Order of the President of the United States will also suffer from the sanctions. It's crucial. Europe is also looking at the United States of America. The US has taken its time. It has done a good job, including an analysis of the mistakes made by its European partners.

Therefore, from a legal point of view, the US sanctions are tougher. Now Europe will look at Americans and fix its mistakes.

This trajectory is suitable not only for the US but also for the European partners, who are about to meet and consider what to do next with the Lukashenka regime.

The Biden decree laid the legal foundation for prompt actions by the US administration.

- Let us make it clear once again. The information available as of 10 August says that the sanctions will be of the "Iranian" scenario. It means that there will be a secondary scenario as well. In other words, they may extend to Russian companies and structures that will co-operate with sub-sanctioned structures of Belarus.

But Biden's decree also mentions all representatives of the Belarusian authorities and the Belarusian state, which sounds quite threatening. It seems that the interpretation of the sanctions package will take more than a week or even a month. Is it so?

- It is true. At the moment, we know that about 40 individuals and legal entities are on the personal list since August 9, 2021. But what will be implemented according to President Biden's Executive Order will be known in the next few weeks, maybe even months.

After all, the decree has set the legal foundation for prompt actions by the US administration. This element was missing before, and previous sanctions were being imposed very slowly and in a limited way. Now the US executive branch has the grounds and the tools to act quickly and painfully.

If all the prisoners are not released, the US will impose new sectoral sanctions.

- How do you assess that list of about a dozen and a half companies and enterprises hit by the U.S. sanctions? How serious for the Belarusian economy is it? Do you expect a crisis?

- Perhaps, it will not so significantly affect the economy of Belarus. It is possible. But it will have an impact on the pockets of those who supported the regime. After all, there is the illegal trade in cigarettes, additional sanctions against producers of potash fertilizers and many other things.

Above all, it should affect the pockets of those who make money from illegal or grey schemes of trade, no matter where they are - in Belarus or abroad.

In my opinion, this is a very carefully developed and thought-out tool. If the previous US sanctions were an unfreezing of the earliest US sanctions going back to the early 2000s, which was a shot in the air, the August 9, 2021 sanctions are a more targeted shot.

There is the prospect of a few weeks or months when deterioration of the sanction regime will come if nothing changes in Belarus.

And "nothing will change" means: unless all political prisoners are released in Belarus, not only those recognised as such by the international community, and new elections are announced in the country. And the third condition: until those guilty of violence against peaceful citizens of Belarus are brought to justice.