And not only because of potash fertilizers.
In December 2021, the broad money supply grew by 6.6%, and the ruble money supply grew by 18.7% compared to the level of 2020 (growth over 12 months). This is a record growth rate for 18 months in a row. If the upward trend in the ruble supply continues in 2022, this will already be a wake-up call.
The broad money supply grew rather modestly - by 6.6%, although in the forecast this indicator was in the range of 7-10%. What caused the growth of the ruble money supply, and is it worth worrying about this? The newspaper "Belarusy i Rynok" asked the experts about this.
Former head of the National Bank Stanislau Bahdankevich notes that the National Bank invested in forecast indicators, and the growth of the ruble money supply had a certain impact on inflation, which in December 2021 amounted to just under 10%.
"To a certain extent, the growth of the ruble money supply, among other factors, had an impact on inflation. I would say that many factors influenced inflation. The ruble money supply was spent on lending to state-owned enterprises, many of which did not return the rubles on time - this indirectly affected inflation. We have very large accounts payable and debt on overdue loans. I think the main reason is inefficiency: the costs are made, but in the end there is no return," he told the reporter.
According to the main directions of monetary policy for 2022, the growth of the average broad money supply in December against the comparable month in 2021 is projected at the level of 7-13%. Will it be possible to meet the forecast indicator?
According to Bahdankevich, the broad money supply should be limited to a maximum of 10 percent. The planned indicator is more or less acceptable. But due to the refusal of the Norwegian company Yara to buy Belarusian potash fertilizers, problems will arise. And not only with potash fertilizers. Some sanctions come into effect in April, some earlier, and in the meantime, the EU is preparing new ones…