Former Polish Ambassador To Belarus: Lukashenko Is Afraid Of It
- 1.06.2026, 13:43
- 2,262
Photo: gov.pl
Latvia, Lithuania and Poland need a unified strategy on Belarus.
Polish diplomat, ambassador to Belarus (1998-2002), professor of the Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University Mariusz Maszkiewicz believes that Lukashenko can really provide the territory of our country for a new aggression against Ukraine.
Mariusz Maszkiewicz told about this and not only in an interview to the website Charter97.org:
- I worked in Belarus for eight years and know Lukashenko very well. The Belarusian dictator is afraid of Putin. They have not very good and not at all friendly relations, although they pretend to communicate normally.
This is similar to the situation in the CIS, which includes Belarus. There the rulers of the countries simply hate each other and are always waiting for another blow from Putin. There is no openness in relations there. I think Lukashenko may be under pressure from Putin and make some step in favor of the Russian army, it is possible. So the Ukrainians are right to prepare for such a surprise strike from the north.
- Lukashenko's regime was forced to release Andrzej Poczobut. How does this change official Poland's relationship with Minsk? Will Warsaw continue to take a hard line against the dictator?
- I don't hold any position in state structures now, but I hope that none of the high Polish officials or people who deal with relations with Belarus will take this move by the dictator seriously, as some kind of turning point and significant moment. This is just Lukashenko's bargaining with the Americans, which started thanks to US President Donald Trump.
We got the opportunity to receive Andrzej Poczobut for a while, so that he could come to his senses and regain his health. And it's a blessing that Andrzej finally agreed to leave the territory of Belarus for a while. He will be coming back, he says it out loud.
But there is no serious element of change in Poland's relations to Lukashenko's dictatorial regime. I hope no one takes this move by the dictator seriously.
- Lukashenko's regime has almost stopped hybrid attacks by migrants on the border with Poland, but increased pressure on the Baltic states. What does this mean?"
- As you may remember, in 2021, at the very beginning of the migration crisis, Lukashenko's regime first probed the reaction of its neighbors. At that time, the pressure of migrants was directed primarily at Lithuania and Latvia, while Poland was not yet directly affected.
I was in Georgia at the time and observed this process. Lukashenko made similar statements 20 years ago. For him it is like a nuclear weapon: "I will send you migrants - you will see". This was Lukashenko's long-standing promise. This is just his last trump card, and he decided to use it.
Then it started against Poland. Now the situation is changing again. The same is happening with the weather probes that are being launched from Belarus. I don't think we care so much about the regime's internal practices. What is important is another thing: we need to stick together - the three neighbors, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland - and stick to one strategy.
If Poland closes the border for transport, especially trade, this is very sensitive for Lukashenko. Trade is important to him. I think he is afraid that we will close these border crossings again and cut off the possibility of exports. The pressure on Lithuania and Latvia may be related to Russian maneuvers and plans for possible aggression. But it is difficult to say for sure now: I am simply not dealing with this issue in such detail.
- Intelligence agencies of many countries warn that Putin may be preparing an attack on the Baltic States, including from the territory of Belarus. How likely is such a scenario and how would Poland act in this case?
- Good question. I would also ask it to those people who solve such political and logistical issues at the moment of crisis.
I would like to see an immediate response to any aggression on the part of the Russian Federation. I would like Poland, as well as other NATO countries, to react instantly in case of an attack on the Baltic States - on Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia.
Luckily, we have the technical capability. I am referring to the NATO aviation that defends the skies over Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn. I hope this threat is obvious to the Russians, and they will think two or three times before making such a move.
Naturally, they have an appetite to tease NATO or test the Alliance's resilience. The Russian Federation has an appetite to carve out something related to the so-called Suvalsky Corridor or the corridor toward Kaliningrad. The Kremlin has hopes that it might be possible to win something by seeing a weakness or a moment of hesitation.
But I don't think it will happen. The Baltic States - our allies in the Alliance - should feel every day that the whole Alliance, the whole Europe, practically the whole Union stands behind them.
- You publish the magazine "Free Belarus Journal". Tell us about it: what is this project about and why is it important to talk about Belarus in Poland today?
- Yes, this project is called "Free Belarus Journal". This is such an idea - to accumulate and collect expert opinions, expert and academic articles related to the future of Belarus.
I mean that experts and academics do not have to deal only with current politics. It is important to think more about how to build their homeland at the moment when it will be possible. "The day after" is the day after Lukashenko. These are constitutional issues, issues of communication, some kind of reflection, the concept of the country's development.
This is an academic journal within the framework of the Free Belarusian University of Alexander Milinkevich. I just decided to help him. I am not a citizen of Belarus, but I help my Belarusian friends to organize debates and strategic thinking about their country.
I would be very happy if I could see with my own eyes the changes in Belarus, regime change and a free country that is a good neighbor of Poland.
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