“Belarusian Junta Has Finally Regressed To Haberdasher's Status”

Now any attempts of the West to bring Lukashenka to a negotiating table will cause only reluctance.

No one was expecting a night invasion. And it did not take place. So far, it can only be noted that the crisis has not gone away and the mass withdrawal of troops has not begun. However, even in Minsk, the militant rhetoric about victorious campaigns against Kyiv and the English Channel has subsided.

We can draw some conclusions, writes the Nick and Mike Telegram channel.

Ukraine has confirmed its subjectivity and has not succumbed to persuasion not to join NATO. Although here, of course, we can talk about air trade while there are territorial claims and issues of a corruption plan, the entry will not be visible on the horizon. But it is necessary to aspire to NATO because the constant threat from the East is not going anywhere. If in 2014, Ukraine instinctively twitched towards the West due to the extremely clumsy behavior of the Kremlin, now this direction is cemented, and the thesis about a single people will lose its relevance for a long time.

Another thing is that the existence of a country in a state of permanent hybrid threat can hardly be called comfortable. There are additional risks for investors and additional costs for militarization instead of development for the country itself.

The issue of recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) (with incomprehensible borders) will hang in the air for some time as a reason for escalation, but this gun is unlikely to go off. Because the consequences will be catastrophic. At least Kyiv will be the political beneficiary of the failure of the Minsk agreements.

The Belarusian junta has finally regressed to haberdasher's status and demonstrated that its territory is a thoroughfare for the older brother. If they want, they introduce something, if they want, they leave it. Nevertheless, they do not report and even do not want to report after cancellation. It means the source of a constant threat in military terms. It is unlikely that the junta will be able to rewind this position, which means that measures to limit economic cooperation will be introduced more actively.

Belarus does not supply unique products to Ukraine and trades with a big plus for itself. We can say that the 'exercises' cost Minsk not only the roads broken by machinery but also the complication of the conditions for the transit of potassium. Actions are likely against other sensitive junta's goods. A search for alternatives to Belarusian oil products will accelerate. The potassium, which will be supplied through devious schemes ('Mike" claims such options work), has come under constant threat of retaliation against the Ukrainian companies involved.

Now any attempts of the West to bring Lukashenka to a negotiating table will cause only reluctance. What is the reason to talk to one, who fulfills nothing and controls even nothing? This is not a kind of a 'Finnishization', it is even a 'Chechenization'. All the attributes were there before, but now the possibility of the uncontrolled entry of Russian troops has completed the picture.

The Kremlin has finally transformed (until the end of the transit) into an unpredictable threat. It only remains to say, "West has failed, we did not attack". The position is comfortable but rather weak. Much more comfortable for the West, which "by its unity and determination prevented the invasion".

The most expensive exercises in the history of Russia have brought more disadvantages at this stage. It concerns the nuclear electorate, even "some Ukraine cannot be captured".

It is necessary to retreat and come to the negotiating table on the INF Treaty and something else, you can, of course, still “spit on sanctions” (diplomatic newspeak from Lavrov’s subordinates). But, as they say, a gangster should only take out a gun when he is ready to shoot, otherwise, he quickly turns into a bully. Therefore, it remains to take the younger brother in an embrace and make a statement for the first time in many-hours-long meetings. Watch the length of the table.