'Junta Will Be Pulled Headlong Into Water'

Belarusians have sensed a catch and lined up at the exchangers for a reason.

The trench ally, in its best traditions, "underrecognized" the "LPR" and "DPR". "Mutually beneficial" recognition did not work out, so they once again preferred to forget about the allied debt, writes the Nick and Mike Telegram channel.

Jozi reports that the Kremlin is disappointed with this decision, because they thought that this time he "will definitely not let us down", although the value of recognizing or not recognizing the "LPR" and "DPR" as a the regime of the Blue-Fingered is still around the "0" mark. But another sediment remained. Against the background of the "growing economy of the junta", the fall of the Russian stock market and the need to inject colossal money into the economy of the "new states", financial requests from Minsk were sent to the siding. In the spring, the Belarusian economy will enter a pre-default state (Belarusians smell a catch and lined up at the exchangers for a reason).

And this is provided that there is no full-scale conflict in the region, the likelihood of which is still very high, since the issue of the borders of the "LPR" and the "DPR" is in itself a hybrid threat.

Remaining within the actual line of demarcation means only an extremely high price for what we have — sanctions and the need to now officially support extremely arrogant and greedy vassals. Moving on means giving a reason to go beyond the established hypocritical border between "military presence and full-scale invasion", and break into a hot conflict.

There is no consensus among the Russian elites, but the decision is made by one person for whom a demonstration of will and greatness may now be more important than the consequences. And the obvious brain inflammation cannot be disregsrded.

The junta in this situation was fastened to the older brother. Admit it or not, and there will definitely be consequences. If they disperse peacefully, it will be difficult to sell "non-recognition" to the West in conditions when the Russian army and the National Guard feel at home on the territory of the junta, provoking the strengthening of NATO’s presence in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland.

If there is a hot conflict, then the junta will be dragged headlong into this funnel, despite the extremely limited involvement of the Belarusian component in the process — they are not ready and do not trust. Aggression or threats of aggression from the territory of Belarus will be enough. The victorious war with NATO on TV is apparently failing. And the concept of "between the trickles" is clearly not going to work.

It remains to watch with caution and by inertia to move the "referendum" project, which, even in the absence of large-scale protests, is an unnecessary overload for the system itself.