Opinion: Lukashenka May Resolve To Attack Ukraine

The Kremlin loves knowingly failed plans.

The purpose is more or less clear: with the help of the moves in Minsk, Moscow wants to leave part of the AFU grouping in the central direction so that it cannot be redeployed to the south-east. Thus, Moscow threatens that the "regrouping" and complete relocation of forces to the southern arc may cause re-activation (it is unclear only by whom) of the Kyiv direction through the RB, the CYNIC Telegram channel writes.

The parameters of the threats are not completely clear: whether this sequence of strange steps is only a "frightening factor" or Lukashenka will be forced by Moscow to launch an attack (again - the only possibility is to send Belarusian troops to the central direction, as the majority of Russian equipment and personnel have left the home territory of the Palace).

Judging purely by the military component, the plan is monstrous: it has no chance of a positive outcome, but here it is still important to understand the original purpose in case of invasion.

Judging by the amount of equipment, it does not seem that a second offensive on Kyiv was planned at all. And judging by the resources available to Belarus and Russia at the moment, we can clearly say that the Kyiv direction is completely unpromising.

(We proceed from logic, because otherwise we would have to abandon analytics altogether: "fools' plans" have no logic).

So the supposed tactical task is precisely the fixing of the AFU grouping in the central direction. It is important for Russia that these forces are not redeployed to the south, which would completely block the current "meter" advance along the Severodonetsk mousetrap.

There are various forms of "fixing": from verbal intervention (Zhirinovsky's remarks) to provocations (the shooting at the border) and full-scale intervention (the entire attacking side will die, but it will not be Russian troops, and this will give the Kremlin some time to consolidate the south-eastern front line).

Wasting the entire RB army in a meat grinder, given the disloyalty and lack of training of the troops, is the wildest plan possible: it would bring Ukraine mountains of scrap metal, hundreds of prisoners, hundreds of "defectors" and a few "system ratts".

It is hard to imagine anything more absurd, knowingly failed, moronic and stupid (the Kremlin loves that, so let's leave this "note in the margin").

So the most logical and "adequate" (as far as it is possible in Lukashenka and Putin's realities) option is "ambiguous formulations" on the verge of provocations, which will force Kyiv to keep combat-ready units at the Kyiv direction. Anything else makes no strategic sense (although one cannot speak of strategy in the Russian Federation). That is, moving troops around Belarus, approaching the border and stepping back from it - basically, it makes sense.

Anything more "combative" does not.