Lukashenka got into zugzwang.
Russian lawyer and political blogger Mark Feygin commented on the behavior of the Belarusian dictator on the Ukraine 24 channel. He is sure that Lukashenka is afraid:
“Lukashenka is definitely very afraid. You can see it in all his behavior, in all his latest statements. He is guided solely by his own interests, the question of his own security. As for everything else, I think he does not care at all what will happen and how. He just wants to survive in this situation. So that he is not physically eliminated either by one or the other.
Feigin explained what threatens the Belarusian ruler now.
“Currently, the main threat to him comes not even from Putin. He could be eliminated for the purpose of involving Belarus directly in the military campaign, in order to put some KGB general in his place, and start spending the nine million Belarusian people in the same way that they spend the Russian people, on the war for their imperial goals.
But, I think, now this has been canceled, because in the conditions of war Putin will not take such actions, especially since, apparently, Lukashenka managed to somehow get away.
But the problem remains in the relations with Kyiv. He is afraid of Kyiv, he is afraid of the West personified by Kyiv, standing behind Kyiv, he is afraid of Poland, he is afraid of Lithuania.
After all, how does it turn out: if Moscow really suffers a military defeat, it will be the next main target. How will you stop Kalinouski former battalion, which has already become a regiment? These people who went through the fire, burned and died, who got out of Akrestsina Street prison, they will not stay in Ukraine.
And, look how the Belarusian authorities react, they introduce the death penalty for an attempt on terrorism. This has never happened at all, it's arbitrary. And this transition to tougher criminal legislation is, of course, due to fear, Feygin emphasized.
At the same time, he is not sure that the Belarusian security forces will protect Lukashenka in case of real danger:
“It is still unknown how the Belarusian security forces will behave in this situation. It's one thing to confront people who take off their shoes to stand on a bench, and another thing when you have professional military men in front of you. Because the Belarusian army has no combat experience, it has never fought anywhere.
I think that Lukashenka is becoming more and more aware of how many enemies he has. No less than Putin. Only Putin has something to defend himself, while Lukashenka's only defense is Putin. Therefore, he will invent ways so that, on the one hand, Putin protects him, and on the other, so that Kyiv does not have any intentions to overthrow him.
The blogger assessed Lukashenka's position at the present time as “a state of zugzwang”.
“Even if Lukashenka suddenly runs away to some island, Borneo, or leaves for China, he will simply become a hostage of Beijing. And this will already be a question of trade, like, what will you give us for him?
He has nowhere to flee. The only thing that gives real protection is the law if you leave for Europe. But who will accept Lukashenka! There are no such countries.
It turns out that he has stuck in a hopeless situation — he is to remain in power, because he simply has nowhere to go. Under certain circumstances, he could hide behind Putin and move to Yanukovych, but who knows what will happen to Putin himself, and whether Lukashenka will become a convenient excuse to exchange him for the lifting of some sanctions?” Mark Feygin does not rule out.