‘Sasha Got Fired From Soviet Army After Two-Year Service Due To Mental Issues’

Why is Lukashenka so obsessed with his military career dream?

From a rational point of view, the planned invasion of the Belarusian army is complete nonsense, writes the Telegram channel Minsk Semiboyarschina. The grouping is too small to complete the task of capturing a significant part of the territory of Ukraine. But the joint contingent is quite capable of “cutting off” Ukraine’s supply routes for Western weapons. It is believed that the task of direct invasion is practically unrealizable. In the CIA, MI6, the GUR they are accustomed to think rationally, in a European way. The following factors must be taken into account though:

1. Lukashenka is obsessed with his military career dream. “Sasha” after 2 years of service was dismissed from the Soviet army from the post of political officer in the rank of senior lieutenant, due to mental issues. He also failed to gain a foothold in the internal troops and the prison system. Having received unlimited power, he therefore plays toy soldiers. Hence, the shoulder straps of the generalissimo, the statements like “I am a military man, I know how to fight.” Consequently, Lukashenka may try to enter the war even in an unfavorable scenario. Just to satisfy unfulfilled ambitions. At the right moment, the pro-Kremlin environment will provide the necessary impetus.

2. The leadership of the power block of the Republic of Belarus (the Ministry of Defense, Security Council, KGB, Ministry of Internal Affairs, State Border Committee) mainly consists of embedded employees or agents of the GRU, External Intelligence Service, and FSB of the Russian Federation. Some are used “in the shadows”. For the Kremlin, the invasion of military units of the Republic of Belarus into Ukraine is beneficial in any case and form. This solves the following tasks:

— The Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to additionally divert significant forces (at least several brigades and heavy equipment) to the “Belarusian front”. Thus, the operational-tactical position of the Russian army in other areas of hostilities will improve significantly;

— Lukashenka will turn from a co-aggressor into a full-fledged participant in armed aggression. He will have no way back;

— a certain part of Belarusians will hate the Ukrainians because of the relatives killed and maimed during the hostilities, the destruction of settlements and infrastructure facilities. A classic example is the “LDPR”, in which the Russian command specifically sends the male population “for slaughter” and deliberately destroys the entire infrastructure. The number of sympathizers and those who help Ukraine will predictably decrease.

The main thing is that during the armed conflict with Ukraine, a significant part of the personnel of the combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, aviation, MLRS, artillery, and armored vehicles will be destroyed. The power block will be completely demoralized. This will create conditions for the “attachment” of the Republic of Belarus to Russia by introducing even a small number of Russian troops. Even theoretically, there will be no one to provide armed resistance, and peaceful demonstrations will be severely suppressed — as they did in Kherson.”