150,000 ‘Mobilized Newbies’ Getting Ready: What Will New Attack On Kyiv From Belarus Look Like?

Important events may occur in mid-February.

Colonel and former head of the press service of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vladyslav Seleznev told Dozhd about how hostilities could develop in 2023.

Recently, Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, was appointed commander of the Joint Group of Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. According to Seleznev, this suggests that Putin still wants to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine.

“The appointment of Gerasimov will allow us to make decisions more quickly,” the military expert said.

Where will the Russians attempt a massive offensive? Answering this question of Dozhd, Seleznev referred to the words of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny.

“Most likely, Putin will act in three directions. I will list them by the order of priority. The first is the continuation of fighting in the area of Bakhmut, Soledar. More broadly: access to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The timing of a large-scale offensive on this front depends on the timing of the supply of human resources (“mobilized”),” Seleznev said. “The second priority position is the south, the preservation of the land corridor that connects the temporarily occupied Donetsk with the temporarily occupied Crimea.

But any defense is successful when it is active. Therefore, the Russian army may try to reach the administrative borders of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Although they themselves destroyed all the bridges in the Kherson region, it will therefore be extremely difficult to cross the Dnieper.

And the third direction in terms of priority is Kyiv. Putin still dreams of conquering the “mother of Russian cities”. What the Russian troops failed to implement with a force of 40 thousand people, they will probably try to realize with a force of 100 thousand people.”

Seleznev thinks that by mid-late February, hostilities in eastern Ukraine will intensify significantly. By this time, Putin's army will receive a reserve of 150,000 mobilized newbies, who are now completing their training at the training grounds in Russia and Belarus.

“The Russian Federation will try to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. If they manage to implement this plan, the epicenter of hostilities will move to the south,” Seleznev believes.

But there are serious doubts that the Russians will be able to implement even this plan. Seleznev drew attention to the fact that there is no public information about the preparation of the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, so it is not yet known what force Russia will face. Much will also depend on the supply of weapons from Western countries: if necessary, they will allow not only to keep the defense, but also to counterattack.

Seleznev said that the Russian army would face huge losses in the coming months, which could rise to 200,000 casualties.

“This option cannot be ruled out, because the Russian army is fighting in numbers,” said the military expert.

Despite Russia's plans for a large-scale offensive, he believes that by the end of the summer the Armed Forces of Ukraine will reach the borders of Ukraine of the 1991 model.