Will Moscow Take The Plunge?

Putin now has more incentives to do this than ever before.

Iran is once again asking Russia for S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. According to the British newspaper *The Telegraph*, Tehran is in talks with Moscow to purchase one of the most advanced air defense systems in Russia’s arsenal. The reason is clear: over the course of eight months of war, American and Israeli strikes have demonstrated just how vulnerable Iran’s airspace is.

In recent days, this has been confirmed repeatedly: there have been reports of U.S. strikes on Iranian air defense facilities, primarily on the island of Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump calls them “small” and boasts that yet another Iranian anti-aircraft battery was destroyed “in about 15 minutes, maybe five.” Washington insists that these are “defensive” strikes against systems threatening American aircraft, and that the war has not resumed.

At the same time, Qatari mediators are continuing negotiations with Tehran. In other words, the Americans are bombing Iranian air defense systems while simultaneously talking about peace, and Iran is talking about peace while simultaneously seeking the means in Moscow to shoot down American aircraft.

However, who better than the Iranians to know that negotiations can go on indefinitely? Russia has already turned down Iran’s request for S-400s on more than one occasion: in 2019, according to media reports, due to relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel, and later out of concern that it would strain relations with the U.S. The deal has still not been confirmed. But the Kremlin is gradually expanding its military aid to Tehran. In February, the Financial Times reported on a 500-million-euro deal to supply thousands of man-portable anti-aircraft missiles, while U.S. media reported on drone components, ammunition, and satellite imagery.

Will Moscow go through with it this time? Putin now has more incentive to do so than ever before. Relations with Washington have warmed to such an extent that Trump himself publicly claims that Russia is providing almost no assistance to Iran. And every new American strike against Iran makes Russia an increasingly indispensable ally for Tehran.

However, Moscow itself needs every air defense resource it can get. And the problems of its “junior partner” are hardly more important to it than its own burning oil refineries.

Leonid Nevzlin, Telegram

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