Kreminna is in a state of operational encirclement.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing in the Luhansk region. Ukrainian defenders are fighting for control of the road to Svatove.
The Charter97.org website asked Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko about what is happening in the Luhansk line:
— To the south of Kreminna there is a fairly large forest area. For a long time, operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to occupy positions were carried out in this forest. To date, this forest is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This greatly complicates the position of the Russian occupation troops in the Kreminna area.
At the same time, if we are talking about the northern section, then this is actually the R-66 highway, which connects Kreminna and Svatove. This route is under full fire control of the Ukrainian artillery. That is, it is impossible to carry out safe transportation of supplies from Svatove to Kreminna for the Russian occupiers. Now for them it is quite a risky undertaking.
In this regard, they are trying to provide a group of troops exclusively through Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, but again this is not logistically enough to ensure that the units concentrated there, which are in active defense.
In general, Kreminna was in a state of operational encirclement. When this operational encirclement is fully formed, the Russians will have only one option left — to retreat.
— When will the Armed Forces of Ukraine launch a counter-offensive in the Luhansk region?
— The situation is really difficult. In fact, the conditions for a counter-offensive in the Luhansk region are more comfortably formed than in some other areas. However, there is one very important factor that still has a serious impact on the success of the counteroffensive. This factor is weather. Now Ukraine has a rather warm winter, but severe frosts would be very appropriate.
Ground freezing has a very serious effect in operations such as counteroffensives. Therefore, it is not necessary to say that a counteroffensive can begin without taking this factor into account. This is indeed a very serious factor, since the equipment literally gets stuck in the ground and the success of quick maneuverable assault operations seem doubtful.
After all, such a nominal operation in the Kharkiv region was carried out by means of fast maneuverable assault groups. Against which, in fact, the largest armored grouping in the combat zone, at that time, turned out to be completely powerless. I believe that without such opportunities to act quickly, the effectiveness of the counteroffensive will not be the same.