Volodymyr Fesenko: Russians ‘Sober Up’ After Drone Attacks On Moscow

The number of supporters of the war in the Russian Federation is decreasing.

The State Duma of the Russian Federation adopted a law on increasing the draft age to 30 years. For Russians who will be given summonses, the borders will be closed. Why is Putin taking such measures?

The Charter97.org website talked about this with a well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research Volodymyr Fesenko:

— So far, this is just a legal framework for the future. This does not mean that everyone will be drafted into the army until the age of 30. First of all, I think this is done just in case. We can say that this is an expansion of the available contingent for conscription into the army without mobilization.

Last year, mobilization caused a sharp jump of anxiety in Russia, migration from the country. The draft is a thing that the Russians are used to, many evade it, go to study at a university or take post-graduate courses.

Now it turns out that those who evaded the draft due to their studies can fall under it after graduation. Since these are young people, they can be drafted at least selectively without creating the appearance of mass mobilization.

Apparently, the military came up with it. At the same time, they are scaring the West with the possibility of a “big war”.

— Just recently, head of the Defense Committee of the Russian Federation Andrei Kartapolov said that the law was being adopted “for a big war”. How to evaluate these words?

— I will say that the words of Kartapolov caused criticism in Russia. Polls were conducted on Russian Telegram channels on how people feel about the idea of preparing “for a big war.” It turned out that the vast majority were negative. It is clear that this is an unrepresentative sociological survey, but this is an active politicized audience.

It’s a paradox, but there are many people who read the so-called “z-patriotic Telegram channels”, are supporters of the war against Ukraine, but, as it turns out, they don’t want a “big war”. In my opinion, this is a very revealing reaction.

Here there are attempts to scare the West. This includes the threat of “Wagnerites” to Poland, and this bill. This is such a hint from Moscow, in particular from the State Duma of the Russian Federation, that the war may drag on.

They are trying to scare the West precisely by prolonging the war and drawing European countries into this war. The Russians are told, they say, keep in mind that not only those who have to serve at the age of 18 can be drafted into the army, but also those who have graduated from the university.

By the way, earlier there was a completely different idea. They wanted to populistically raise the lower bar of conscription to the age of 21. As a result, as Viktor Chernomyrdin said, “we wanted the best, but it turned out as always”.

Summing up, this is potentially an opportunity to expand the conscription contingent by increasing its age limits.

— Still, are the words of Kartapolov an IPSO? Or is the Kremlin really preparing for a “big war”, taking into account the militaristic statements regarding Poland?

— To a certain extent. For example, the statements of Putin and Lukashenka about the “Wagnerites” are definitely an IPSO. For Kartapolov, this is such an element of a propaganda war. If this topic is promoted, then yes, it will be possible to say that this is an IPSO.

On the other hand, the Kremlin is looking for someone else to pull up to the war zone in order to make up for the huge losses. Whom? Conscripts. No need to declare mass mobilization. They will continue to take convicts, or volunteers for money, and the main reserve will be pulled up due to the conscription into the army.

So far, there are formal restrictions that conscripts should not participate in hostilities. But I think that these restrictions will be abolished. There are plenty of examples when Russian recruits who have completed a training course are simply persuaded to sign a contract. As a result, these people go to the war zone on the territory of Ukraine.

The Russians see that the war is dragging on, and the problems from the war are getting bigger. Therefore, the number of supporters of the war against Ukraine is gradually decreasing. Not because, I emphasize, that people have sobered up, but weariness from the war is affecting the situation. Again, more and more problems are felt.

I note that not directly, but indirectly, the attitude of Russians to the war is also affected by drone attacks not only in Moscow, but also in a number of central Russian regions: the Kursk, Voronezh, and Tula regions. I think that there is a feeling that the war is gradually reaching them. Not to mention the Belgorod region, where the fighting is underway.