Political Observer: Consequences Of Such Joke Can Be Sad For Lukashenka

Why did the dictator “backpedal”?

After the transfer of Prigozhin's mercenaries to Belarus, talk about the threats posed by the Wagner PMC against Lithuania and Poland practically does not stop. Moreover, at a meeting with Putin on July 23, Lukashenka did not just hint at the threat, but said it directly. “The Wagnerites are eager for an excursion to Warsaw,” the ruler of Belarus said, naturally, not forgetting to give additional weight to his own person, saying: what a fine fellow I am, that I skillfully restrain them.

However, a week later, Lukashenka suddenly began to make excuses for those words. He said that the Wagner PMC mercenaries were in a camp near Asipovichy, and were not going anywhere, and stated that his previous words to Putin were a common joke that no one understood.

But still, what is happening, and what to expect both from mercenaries and from the actions of both dictators? Belarusian political scientist Anatol Kotau answered these questions in an interview with LRT.lt.

— Let's start with why Lukashenka suddenly “backpedaled”, so to speak? Yes, and he began to justify himself rather ridiculously, saying that it was a joke and that no Wagnerites were going to attack anywhere, and in general everyone should be grateful to him that he sheltered them and restrained the Wagnerites.

— It should be noted that there is a slight discrepancy: either the propaganda does not keep up with the flow of Lukashenka's thoughts, or it is a deliberate broadcast of several contradictory messages regarding the Wagnerites. And it was even within the framework of the same “stand-up” of the latter, when he said that he was joking about Rzeszów, and on the other hand, they should be grateful to him for holding back the offended so that they do not go to Europe.

It is clear why he is trying to present it as a joke — because the consequences of this joke can be extremely sad for him. So far, he sees that no one wanted to talk to him, since it was one of those steps, as with the migration crisis — to try to seat Europe at the negotiating table, to use the trump card of the Wagner group, which, unlike the Belarusian army, at least poses some potential threat, both for the countries of Europe and for Ukraine.

But it seems that instead of negotiations, he received a strengthening of the grouping on the western borders [NATO] and a clear warning that if only the Wagner group made any attempt to cross the border or to conduct provocations on the border, there would be a very serious response. So he had to make it a joke, because this attempt to scare would definitely have consequences that he did not count on. Instead of negotiations, there is a rather tough position, preparation for defense, and it is quite possible to prevent the threat that may come from the territory of Belarus.

— As far as I remember, previous threats of a similar nature, including those related to migrants, ended with a retaliatory threat to close the borders, and Lukashenka always retreated. Can we say that he is still afraid of closing the borders and how important is this for the economy of Belarus?

— Let's go back to the fact that the first steps towards the threat on the borders, in fact, were not a tough response, but in a sense, indulgence, Europe was on Lukashenka’s lead. The first reaction to the migration crisis was the construction and expansion of camps for those who illegally cross the border from the Belarusian side and enter the territory of the European Union. Then there were several calls from Merkel to Lukashenka, with an attempt to talk it over, and only after that everyone understood perfectly well that there was nothing to talk about. If there is no point in calling, you need to be tough.

As soon as there was a real threat of closing the borders, the severity of the migration crisis in 2021 decreased, but, on the other hand, now we see that the ultimatum, which was not carried through to the end by Poland itself, provoked the fact that this migration crisis will simply be extended over time. Every day there are still attempts to cross the border, now they are becoming more and more aggressive again, stones and bottles are already flying, there are wounded officers.

Naturally, Aliaksandr Lukashenka still has some room for maneuver, for escalation. Just to involve the same “Wagnerites” in participation in border incidents, and he will do it, will raise the stakes. Until there is a tough enough reaction, but in fact this is the closure of borders. Closing the borders is extremely painful for the Lukashenka regime. But not for people, but for goods, this is an important caveat. Because it hits not only smuggling, the most important thing in closing the border is a blow to illegal supply chains, which, due to the difference in the sanctions regimes between Russia and Belarus, make it possible to bypass sanctions.

Lukashenka earns on this. On the fact that part of the sanctioned products goes to Belarus, but much more of its flows are sent to the Russian Federation through the Belarusian jurisdiction. Therefore, the closure of borders is a very significant blow to the receipt of foreign exchange earnings, both legally and illegally, too.

— How, in this regard, are we supposed to treat helicopters that violated the airspace of the European Union? That is, Lukashenka is trying to translate his previous words into a joke, and literally at the same moment there is a violation of the airspace. And moreover, the Ministry of Defense completely boorishly comments on this event and on the reaction of NATO, with the phrase: one woman once said.

— You have to understand that this is just one of the very escalation tools that can be used by the Lukashenka regime. Although here one can assume some kind of accident that the helicopters that guarded Lukashenka's helicopter flew several kilometers into the territory of Poland. Let's put it this way, taking advantage of the fact that flights at a fairly low altitude are very difficult to detect by means of technical control, in fact, they were spotted and recorded by ordinary residents of the border settlement from the Polish side, and only video evidence turned out to be confirmation of the fact of border violations.

I think that the fact of a not very conscious violation of the border could have taken place here, because otherwise it must be recognized that this was a very serious and reckless provocation. Military helicopters would be subject to immediate downing.

Another thing is that this incident, like previous incidents with a missile flying from the territory of Belarus, the remains of which were found this year near Bydgoszcz, show that the air defense system in Poland is not perfect. Otherwise, Lukashenka should have understood that with such a movement he could accidentally unleash a serious conflict directly between Belarus and NATO. Absolutely thoughtless and with extremely sad consequences for Lukashenka himself.

Of course, one more thing can be assumed, but it would be like a joke on my part that the Belarusian pilots used the maps of September 1939, when it was the territory of Belarus.

— Here is another observation. Six months ago, for example, Lithuania was present in the Belarusian propaganda field, Latvia less often, but nevertheless, now we see that immigrants do not storm the Lithuanian border — or we simply do not know about it — and the provocation, if it occurs, is mainly in relation to Poland. Why such a sharp switch to one flank?

— You have to understand that, firstly, the Polish border is longer than the border between Belarus and Lithuania. Secondly, attitudes in principle towards those who cross the border in Poland are a little more loyal. But again, if you treat all this exactly as it is — as an attempt to punish neighboring countries for some unfriendly position, then, of course, Poland is in the lead with its assistance to Ukraine. In addition, if we compare by the number of Belarusians who left Belarus and were forced abroad, then, of course, Poland is also a leader, in terms of the degree of hostility, which is greater than towards Lithuania.