Media: China Seriously Considering Scenario Of Breakup Of Russia Into Parts

The Kremlin has already begun to feel discomfort from Chinese dominance.

Senior Chinese officials are seriously considering the collapse of Russia if current Kremlin chief Putin loses power.

Internationale Politik Quarterly writes that a series of private conversations with high-ranking Chinese interlocutors confirms that China's leadership is concerned about the possibility of Russia's collapse if the Russian dictator loses power.

Chinese leaders are obsessed with the idea of stability, and the very risk of an unstable neighbour appearing in the territory of present-day Russia, which could become a safe haven for terrorist groups, is terrifying for the Beijing leadership, the publication's journalists note.

"They fear that such instability could spread to China," the piece notes.

At the narrative level, there are significant differences in the internal discourse between Russia and China on the most important aspects of cooperation between the two countries, including Eurasian connectivity, China's share in the Arctic, the scale of bilateral economic exchanges with high added value, as well as contrasting views on the historical relevance of the Russian Far East.

Since Russia's attack on Ukraine, this gap has widened for several reasons.

First, China's ambitions differ significantly from those of Russia. As a result of the discrepancy between its self-perception and its lack of sufficient economic resources to achieve its goals, Russia tends to employ underhanded tactics.

Its self-sufficiency mentality makes it challenge the international system and play the role of a spoiler, even resorting to military action and nuclear threats, which is strongly disapproved by the Chinese leadership.

On the other hand, China actively seeks a stable and influential position in the international arena, which is intertwined with its desire to ensure the sustainability of the existing domestic political system.

To this end, a little instability that challenges the US-led security order may be useful, but too much chaos, including a real nuclear threat, is counterproductive.

Russia, by contrast, feels uncomfortable about the Chinese dominance. There are fears that Chinese technological dominance could pose a threat to Russia's information security, the publication's journalists conclude.