Political Scientist: Time To Play Double Games Is Over For Lukashenka

The dictator crossed all the “red lines”.

On Wednesday, September 13, the European Parliament voted at a plenary meeting in Strasbourg for a resolution calling on the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue an arrest warrant for Lukashenka’s arrest. The EU parliament recognises that the Belarusian dictator is involved in the war in Ukraine.

Does this document have any real-life impact? Charter97.org journalists spoke to Slovak political scientist Grigorij Mesežnikov, the President of the President of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO):

– Of course, it has practical importance. The European Parliament is an authoritative European organization, one of the highest bodies of the European Union. Sure, the court is independent and it makes decisions on the grounds of real evidence, but it is quite possible that this could be the first step.

There will be further data (there is a lot of it) about crimes committed by Belarus. If Lukashenka’s responsibility is proven, then I think the process can begin.

It seems to me that in general, it is very important that the European Parliament, I repeat, one of the highest EU bodies, demanded to address the issue of prosecuting a dictator who has bloodstained hands.

– Lukashenka was able to restore relations with the West for a long time. Does he have the opportunity to somehow get out of this situation after such resolutions?

– The time to play double games is over for Lukashenka. He has crossed all the “red lines” and it’s unlikely that he will be able to restore any relations with the democratic world, including the EU.

I think that Lukashenka’s resignation or removal from power is a condition for Belarus to return to the community of states with which democratic Western countries maintain contacts and cooperate. In general, he has become a political outcast a long time ago and he can’t travel abroad.

It is his fault that Belarus is now under sanctions. The issue of limiting transport links between neighboring countries and Belarus is being considered. Lukashenka is generally responsible for everything that is happening to Belarus now. The most serious crimes started in August 2020, but even before that, there was a lot going on.

– Lukashenka was personally acquainted with many rulers against whom The Hague issued arrest warrants: Gadaffi, Milosevic, Omar al-Bashir. Doesn’t he think that the same fate is awaiting him?

– Dictators are always very concerned about their fate. They build systems that generate resistance from ordinary citizens, certain forces, and people who have come under illegal persecution. On their part, there is a desire to resist both the dictatorship and the dictator.

I think that Lukashenka is thinking about this. It would be strange if he didn't do this. Many of his steps aimed at strengthening power are precisely related to his fears that if the government is not strong enough, something may happen that will not please him: either removal from power or weakening of power, protests, etc.