WP: US Changes Strategy Of Aid To Ukraine

An important nuance appeared in it.

The Biden administration is putting together a new strategy that will de-emphasize winning back territory and focus instead on helping Ukraine fend off new Russian advances while moving toward a long-term goal of strengthening its fighting force and economy.

This has been reported by The Washington Post.

The emerging plan is a sharp change from last year, when the U.S. and allied militaries rushed training and sophisticated equipment to Kyiv in hopes that it could quickly push back Russian forces occupying eastern and southern Ukraine.

The idea now is to position Ukraine to hold its position on the battlefield for now, but “put them on a different trajectory to be much stronger by the end of 2024.

The U.S. planning is part of a multilateral effort by nearly three dozen countries backing Ukraine to pledge long-term security and economic support — both out of necessity, given “the disappointing results of last year’s counteroffensive and the conviction that a similar effort this year would likely bring the same outcome, and as a demonstration of enduring resolve to Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

Each side is preparing a document outlining its specific commitments spanning up to a decade in the future. The Washington Post reminds that Britain made its 10-year agreement with Ukraine public last week, which outlined contributions to “Maritime Security, Air, Air Defense, Artillery and Armor” as well as fiscal support and access to its financial sector. France is expected to be next, with an upcoming visit to Ukraine by President Emmanuel Macron.

“This spring the administration hopes to release its own 10-year commitment, now being compiled by the State Department with the blessing of the White House — assuming that President Biden’s $61 billion request for supplemental Ukraine funding is approved by a recalcitrant Congress,” the publication writes.

What guarantees will the document provide for

According to U.S. officials, the American document will guarantee:

support for short-term military operations;

building a future Ukrainian military force that can deter Russian aggression;

will include specific promises and programs to help protect, reconstitute and expand Ukraine’s industrial and export base;

promises and programs that will facilitate and assist the country with political reforms needed for full integration into Western institutions.

In particular, there is hope that the long-term promise will also “future-proof” aid for Ukraine against the possibility that former president Donald Trump wins his reelection bid.

The strategy, as noted, doesn’t mean that the Ukrainians are just going to build their own defensive trenches.

Rather than the massive artillery duels that dominated much of the fighting in the second half of 2022 and much of 2023, the West’s hope for 2024 is that Ukraine will avoid losing any more territory. Additionally, Western governments want Kyiv to concentrate on tactics where its forces have had greater recent success:

longer-distance fires, including with French cruise missiles;

holding back Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to protect naval transit from Ukraine’s ports;

tying up Russian forces inside Crimea with missile strikes and special operations sabotage.

Negotiations with Russia

U.S. policymakers say they expect the war will eventually end through negotiations — but also that they don’t think Putin will be serious about talks this year, in part because he holds out hope that Trump will win back the presidency in November and dial back support to Kyiv.

Trump, who has long touted a special relationship with Putin, said months ago that if he is returned to the White House, he “will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.” Zelensky, in last week’s television interview, called that claim “very dangerous” and invited Trump to Kyiv to share whatever plan he might have,” the Washington Post adds.