ISW: Ukraine Has Crossed Putin's ‘Red Line’

The Kremlin's warnings turned out to be fiction.

Many of Russia's “red lines” are simply information operations aimed at deterring the actions of Ukraine and the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin indirectly stated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with weapons provided by the West do not cross Russia's “red line” that could lead to nuclear escalation.

This is stated in a report by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Putin stated that the Russian nuclear doctrine provides for the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation only in exceptional cases of a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia. Since the beginning of June 2024, Ukrainian troops have been striking military targets in the Belgorod region from US-provided HIMARS systems using GML. Putin’s June 7 statement is a significant rhetorical reversal, given that he and other Kremlin officials have previously threatened to use nuclear weapons if Western countries allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western weapons,” the experts recalled.

Western and Ukrainian policies and actions have crossed Russia’s perceived “red lines” several times during the war without provoking significant Russian reaction, indicating that many of Russia’s “red lines” are likely information operations designed to push the West into self-restraint.