Political Scientist: Mazyr And Navapolatsk Refineries Are Excellent Targets For Ukrainian Drones

Lukashenka takes part in Putin's plan.

Belarusian military leaders and Russian propagandists have been talking for several days about a possible attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Belarus. Belarusian artillery was delivered to the border with Ukraine.

What's behind it? Why do these provocative statements appear now? Charter97.org spoke about this with Petro Oleshchuk, a Ukrainian political scientist and professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv:

— I think that these are just Russia's demands to Lukashenka. The Kremlin continues to escalate the situation, trying to raise the stakes in this way in order to later bargain for the most favorable terms in the event of any negotiation process.

Putin is trying to promote the topic, saying, "We are advancing, come on, urgently persuade us to refuse." After all, there were still statements from the Belarusian authorities that they were ready to use nuclear weapons. Again, we see nuclear blackmail.

I emphasize that this is just a Russian provocation with the escalation of the situation in order to persuade Ukraine's Western partners to some kind of negotiations with the Russian Federation.

— Ukraine does not react to the statements of the Belarusian regime. And what could be Kyiv's reaction? Let's imagine ...

— I wouldn't say no reaction. Yesterday, ArmiaInform published a detailed story about the movement of Ukrainian units to the Belarusian border, about readiness to respond in case of provocations. There was a reaction, just not at the level of diplomats, but at the level of the armed forces.

At the same time, frankly speaking, I am 90% sure that no such actions are planned on the part of Belarus, and there are two factors for that.

First, the Mazyr and Navapolatsk refineries are excellent and achievable targets for Ukrainian drones. Moreover, they were already flying and hitting refineries in Russia, which are much farther away.

This is a serious factor. In addition, Ukraine uses Western weapons. I think that in case of any aggressive actions on the part of Lukashenka, it can be used.

In this regard, Belarus is totally exposed. Unlike Russia with its vast expanses.

I emphasize that in general, the Ukrainian special services have shown that they can hit the relevant facilities very effectively. The Ukrainian Forces have a very good experience in defeating strategic facilities for the Belarusian economy. This is the factor that severely constrains the regime with regard to any potential actions.

I believe that in fact Lukashenka does not want to take any action against Ukraine. But he is quite capable of creating an appearance. I think that this is his participation in Putin's plan.

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