Alexei Melnik: Russia's Vulnerabilities Have Become Obvious

Ukraine has endured and maintained its strategic stability.

What was the past year like for the Ukrainian Armed Forces? The website Charter97.org asked military expert, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center in Kiev Alexei Melnyk to summarize the results of 2025:

- I would say that the year was hard for Ukraine, but we cannot say that it was a total failure. If we are talking about the main topic - war, the very fact that Ukraine has survived another difficult year in confrontation with an enemy that by all parameters is many times stronger than Ukraine, if we take economic, financial and military indicators, is already a success. Plus, there was an additional Trump factor, when Ukraine's key ally turned from time to time from enemy ally to partner. If Ukraine survived in these conditions, it can already be considered a great success.

- What achievements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces do you consider key?

- I would call partially successful reforms of the AFU key. In the conditions of active high-intensity hostilities it is incredibly difficult to carry out any systemic reforms, to make a deep transition to the corps system.

Plus the fact that Ukraine this year has made another serious step in achieving a technological advantage over Russia. The latest statistics show that 60-80% of targets are destroyed by drones. We are referring specifically to combat drones. These are the drones that allow Ukraine to largely compensate for its main weakness - the lack of manpower.

- This year was marked by successful strikes on Russia, the beginning of the fuel crisis and large-scale human losses with minimal territorial advances. What is in store for Russia next year?

- This year, in my opinion, Russia's weaknesses have also become clear. And statements that Russia can continue this war indefinitely are most likely bravado, with a partial realization of the problems that are manifested in Russia itself.

- Russia's main advantage is its living force. Analysis of official statements suggests that virtually that human potential has been exhausted, not to mention the quality of manpower, which Russia now manages to replenish in the amount of 30-35 thousand people every month. If you compare the data at the beginning and end of the year, there is no increase as such. Everything that Russia recruits is being destroyed, and those opportunities that were at the expense of prisoners are practically exhausted.

The second thing is the ability to finance the war. The expression "Budanov-Malyuk sanctions" is familiar. In some periods from 15 to more than 20% of Russian oil refining (taken out of service https://charter97.org/ru/news/2025/10/14/659272/). To date, the figure is also around 15%. These strikes are carried out periodically, and Russia has virtually nothing to counter them.

It is also worth remembering Operation Web, when Russia lost, according to various estimates, from 10 to 40 strategic aircraft. This is another example of Russia's vulnerability in this war, which it originally planned as a short-term operation.

Another indicator of Russia's vulnerability is the Black Sea Fleet. Within a year, the Black Sea Fleet was virtually blocked. There was a de facto strategic neutralization, which is especially painful and humiliating for Russia on the part of an adversary that does not have a classical naval force.

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