Political Analyst: Tariff Wars May Hit Lukashenka's Regime

The dictator has tied Belarus to the Russian ship.

On the eve of the ‘elections,’ Lukashenka spoke about the ‘challenging year of 2025’.

‘This year will be difficult also because our friends and neighbours, with whom we trade, have a difficult situation. You can see that,’ the dictator said.

What problems could he have been talking about? Charter97.org talked to Belarusian political analyst Anatol Kotau:

- It should be understood that now, in the conditions of partial isolation, Russia is the regime's main trading partner. If earlier its share in the foreign trade turnover was from 30 to 50%, now it is close to 70%. Naturally, everything produced in Russia is very quickly reflected in the Belarusian economy. The simplest indicator is the exchange rates of the Russian and Belarusian rubles, which are actually pegged to each other. There is no need to go far: as soon as the Russian ruble falls, the changes are immediately visible in the exchange offices of Belarus.

The Russian economy has been functioning for several years not just under the conditions of external sanctions, which, in theory, can be adapted to with certain losses, but, most importantly, under wartime conditions. Quite a significant part of the economy, up to 30%, is working for the war in one way or another. That is, the GDP may be growing on paper, because some products are created, but these products are not used in the normal life of the country. This is something that shoots, kills and, accordingly, is quickly written off. The defence industry cannot be a locomotive in the conditions of war; on the contrary, it depletes the country's internal resources one way or another.

Taking into account that the Belarusian economy is tied to the Russian economy, everything that negatively affects the economy of the Russian Federation will also affect the economy of Belarus. The funny thing in this situation is that the Russian economy may be hit by peace or some kind of truce with Ukraine, and, accordingly, it will ricochet to the Belarusian economy. Some Belarusian enterprises are now living even better than in 2020, if we are talking about industrial enterprises on military orders from Russia. In this case, there will be no need for their services, goods and resources.

At the same time, the market of civilian products in Russia is slowly but surely shrinking for Belarusian enterprises. Accordingly, Lukashenka understands all this perfectly well and, perhaps, rarely calls things by their true names. The year will not be easy as a result of long-term and purposeful actions of Lukashenka himself, who has tied Belarus to the Russian ship.

- The world is entering an era of tariff wars. How can they hit the Lukashenka regime?

- Yes, they can affect Lukashenka's regime, although he is not the target of these tariff wars. The simplest and most immediate hit could come if the US decides to impose duties or restrictions on trade with Russia, similar, conventionally speaking, to the comprehensive ones they are threatening to impose against Canada and Mexico, but there is a delay there for now.

It will hit Belarusian foreign trade in the same way. I would even say that the introduction of comprehensive customs duties on exports from both Russia and Belarus will be a much stronger blow to the economies of both countries than the introduction of some not very systematic restrictions on exports and imports. This is because such restrictions as a ban on supplies of certain types of products are easier to circumvent than a global increased customs tariff.

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