Lukashenko Perceives Two Threats

What is behind the dictator's "peacefulness"?

Lukashenko held another meeting with security officials, where, among other things, he stated: “We must be prepared for the worst-case scenario. We have analyzed these scenarios, and they are well known to us. But we cannot allow a new round of aggression. Nobody needs that today. We must not take any actions that could be interpreted as aggression.”

Another “peace-loving” statement? Yesterday he said we need to be friends with our neighbors. However, in his typical style—sometimes saying completely contradictory things during a single meeting— he demanded that we be prepared for the worst-case scenario, spoke of fortified areas along the western border that troops must occupy within 24 hours, and emphasized the need to prepare for possible actions by our neighbors.

So this isn’t exactly peaceful rhetoric. Rather, it’s a desire to appear not as a potential aggressor, but as someone who is forced to defend himself.

In my view, Lukashenko hasn’t so much suddenly become “peaceful” as he is trying to balance two objectives: demonstrating readiness for war while simultaneously convincing neighbors that Belarus has no intention of starting it first.

I have repeatedly expressed the view that, for Lukashenko, the entry of Belarusian troops into a war would amount to political suicide. Not only because the majority of the people would not support it, but also because it is unclear what the political consequences would be, how the army would behave, how the West would react, how severe the sanctions might be, and, above all, what negative consequences this would have for Lukashenko’s regime.

Lukashenko may perceive two threats simultaneously: on the one hand, the risk of conflict with neighbors (perhaps he is feigning this, or perhaps he genuinely sees it as a threat); on the other, the danger that Moscow will want to drag Belarus even deeper into the war.

He cannot openly oppose Putin, but he may try to show that the Belarusian armed forces must be ready to defend the country (to secure Russia’s rear, as Lukashenko explains it), rather than necessarily participating in Russian offensive operations. It seems that all these years he has managed to convince Putin that Belarus’s direct entry into the war is disadvantageous first and foremost to the Kremlin itself, since, as they say, it would create more new problems than it would yield any benefits.

So it can be said that Lukashenko has not necessarily become more peace-loving. Rather, he is trying to solve several complex tasks at once: to demonstrate to Moscow a readiness for war, to neighbors—a lack of intention to attack, and to Belarusian society—that the authorities are in control of the situation and that the skies remain “peaceful.” This, however, offers no guarantee that Belarus will not be drawn into further escalation.

Vitaly Tsygankov, Telegram

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