Nikolai Statkevich: The Kremlin's Authority Has Been Dealt A Powerful Blow
1- 19.05.2026, 12:37
- 1,670
Ukraine has managed to take the war to another technological level.
Belarusian opposition leader and ex-political prisoner Nikolai Statkevich in his Telegram channel has reflected on the options for Russia's continued war against Ukraine:
- If earlier Russian official propaganda was somehow still able to keep its consumers believing in a speedy victory over Ukraine, then after President Zelensky's mocking permission for a skimpy celebration of May 9, a sacred date for Russians, and a massive retaliatory strike by Ukrainian drones on Moscow, it has become impossible to hide the real state of affairs.
The Kremlin's authority in the eyes of its subjects has been dealt a powerful blow, which in the eyes of the Kremlin's inhabitants is an embarrassment and a threat at the same time. Perhaps these events will make them assess the course and prospects of the war more realistically.
The main conclusion is that Ukraine has managed to take the war to another technological level, where, thanks to the help of its European allies, the energy of its free business and the talent of its engineers, it is gaining an advantage.
It is not difficult to assess the prospects for the development of events. The mistake in assessing the motives of European countries, which from the beginning of the conflict were considered by Moscow to be only obedient puppets of Washington, leads to the fact that their support for Ukraine will not stop, regardless of the Kremlin's hopes for a change in America's position.
This means that financial, military, technological and political assistance to Kiev will only increase, despite Washington's position.
This means that Ukraine's technological advantage on the battlefield, based on virtually unlimited supply of finances, electronic and, if necessary, electronic equipment, as well as a number of scripts, will continue to grow. Mykola Statkevich sees several scenarios:
1) Mobilization. But with Ukraine's growing technological advantage on the battlefield, it can only lead to a sharp increase in combat losses, discontent in society, emigration of men, rising costs of payments to families of the dead, and a decrease in the number of people employed in the economy.
2) Expansion of the battle line at the expense of Belarus. A repeat of the operation of 2022 in the absence of the factor of surprise and readiness of the Ukrainian side will not work. Forcing the Belarusian regime to participate in the war will not be of much use, as even an attack by all 23 thousand Belarusian ground troops, given their lack of combat experience, skills of mass combat use of drones, and the necessary number of drones themselves will only lead to the destruction of oil refineries, the nearest railroad stations and blocking the supply routes of the invasion group. And eventually to its destruction. Numerous "special forces" of internal troops trained to disperse unarmed demonstrators and detain drunken intruders armed with kitchen knives will only increase the number of combat losses. Mass mobilization of people who want political change in their masses can only lead to mass surrenders or entire units switching to the opposite side, or even to armed insurrections. In short, it is better not to try.
3) Use of tactical nuclear weapons. Threats of this have already been made on the eve of the May 9 parade. I have no doubt that Zelensky's "permission" for the May 9 parade has already been interpreted by the Russian generals to their chief as a compulsory fear of the threat of nuclear weapons. Therefore, these threats will continue.
The most effective type of such threats in the Kremlin, as Statkevich writes, is considered training in the combat use of nuclear weapons:
- Usually nuclear warheads in the Russian army, unlike NATO, are stored in centralized storage facilities, one of which was being rapidly built in Belarus near Krichev.
Before their use, the warheads are transported by convoys of closed trucks under guard to the means of their use - airplanes or missiles. This delivery itself is periodically practiced.
But such training has another meaning. The removal of something from centralized storage facilities is immediately detected by NATO space reconnaissance means. The question immediately arises whether they are taking out real warheads or their mock-ups. Everyone realizes that the beginning of a nuclear attack will be disguised as such training. Therefore, the training itself is already a threat of nuclear attack. After the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Putin has repeatedly announced such drills throughout Russia to frighten the West and make it stop supporting Ukraine. But a nuclear drill in Belarus alone is a threat primarily to Europe. First of all, Ukraine and the neighboring NATO countries.
The United States is not concerned with this threat, since even the Yars modified for "Oreshnik" will simply not fly there from Belarus. This is done in the hope that under the current administration America will not intervene in the event of a nuclear attack on European NATO countries or Ukraine. Under the previous administration they would not have dared, but now they think they can. The peculiarity of frequent threats is that they lower the psychological threshold of their realization and therefore they can be realized sooner or later. I have already written about the consequences for Belarus and the threat to the Baltic States on this channel right after the release.
Now about the danger to Ukraine. In my opinion, there are two possible options for a nuclear strike on it. Near the front line to demoralize or destroy the defenses. But how do you do that in Donbass, which according to the Russian Constitution is considered already part of the Russian Federation. To make a part of the Russian Federation uninhabitable - then what is the point of such "liberation"?
But to strike at "decision-making centers" means to destroy the center and shrines of the "mother of Russian cities". And what about the Russian historical myth? Sevastopol "novodeles" don't count. And the monument to Prince Vladimir will have to be removed from Moscow.
Of the other arguments against the strike is the complete international isolation of the Russian Federation, but it is already close to that. It is better not to mention moral constraints now.
I am forced to make such dire predictions in order to reduce the probability of their realization. The last thing I would want is for them to come true.
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