WSJ: Putin Is Preparing To Start A War In Europe
7- 27.05.2026, 11:33
- 5,262
To break the deadlock in Ukraine.
Russia has reached a stalemate on the battlefield in Ukraine, and fears are growing in European capitals that Vladimir Putin will try to shuffle the cards by expanding the conflict into Europe, writes The Wall Street Journal.
While these concerns are not new, recent events have made them more urgent, the Journal notes. For example, several European national security officials have warned that Russia could try to test NATO's cohesion by striking one of the Baltic states, Swedish or Danish islands in the Baltic Sea, or alliance territory in the Arctic.
President Trump's recent threats to withdraw from NATO and his moves to reduce U.S. troops stationed in Europe add to the threat.
"Senior European officials fear Russia may see an opportunity to strengthen its position in the next 12 months as the oil crisis caused by war with Iran creates further political turmoil in Europe, supporting far-right parties seeking a resumption of Russian oil and gas purchases and an end to aid to Ukraine," the WSJ writes.
Putin faces a choice
According to European intelligence and military officials, there is no indication that Russia is actually moving troops or equipment to launch attacks on the Baltic states or other territories outside Ukraine.
But, they add, Putin will face a difficult choice in the coming months. Western intelligence agencies estimate that Russian forces are losing nearly 35,000 soldiers a month, exceeding the Kremlin's ability to recruit. Continuing the war in Ukraine at the current pace will soon become impossible without resorting to forced mobilization, and Putin needs to justify the move somehow.
"If you just mobilize for this war, you're sending a signal that you're not really winning this war. So there comes a point where they need to escalate the situation to justify mobilization. And that's a very dangerous moment. Of course, nobody can see what's going on in Putin's head, but it could be a calculation to move forward and change the linearity of this war," said Kaja Kallas, the European Union's chief representative for foreign affairs and security policy.
At the same time, Putin continues to claim that victory is near, and there is no indication that his strategic goal of dominating all of Ukraine and redistributing the balance of power in Europe has changed in any way, despite the challenges Moscow faces on the battlefield, the WSJ noted.
The EU is an implacable enemy
For Russia, the EU - which now provides most of its support for Ukraine - is an implacable enemy that must be punished or destroyed.
Russian forces would probably perform much better against European armies than against Ukraine, especially if the U.S. does not rush to its aid. To begin such an escalation, though, Russia would first have to replenish the ranks of its army.
"Mobilization, technically, is absolutely feasible; their mobilization system is fine-tuned. But it would also create serious internal problems and pressures, which could then lead to various interesting consequences. It would be a risky solution for Putin," said Kaupo Rosin, director of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service.
The idea of breaking the stalemate in Ukraine by expanding the war to NATO countries in the Baltics may be tempting but dangerous for Putin, said Norbert Röttgen, a senior German parliamentarian.
"It would be a huge and additional risk for Putin - after not having enough success against Ukraine, to simply add another very strong adversary to the military conflict," Röttgen said.
At the same time, he acknowledged that Putin is known for his penchant for risky actions, and is capable of escalating the conflict.
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