FT: Neither Putin Nor Trump Has Trump And Has Miscalculated
- 27.05.2026, 14:05
- 2,362
Part of the "cards" went to the president of Ukraine.
When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Donald Trump called it a "brilliant" decision. But Russian aggression became one of the most costly mistakes of modern times - until Donald Trump launched Operation Epic Fury in Iran.
This is what Financial Times columnist Edward Luce writes about in "Putin and Trump Have No Cards".
Details
Both Putin and Trump believed their rivals were weak and expected a quick victory. Each saddled their countries with costs, the effects of which will linger long after they leave power. At the same time, China has the most to gain.
"The gap between goal and result is as wide for Trump in the Persian Gulf as it is for Putin in Donbass," the piece says.
The columnist believes that Putin and Trump have created their own traps.
"In Putin's case, the failure of his 'special operation' is existential. He is less inclined to recognize reality because it will cost him his office, and possibly his life. Trump's problem has more to do with pride and politics: no amount of statements or artificially created media noise will hide the fact that he has to negotiate with a regime he previously promised to completely destroy. And with this he only strengthens its position," he said.
Ukraine has trump cards
Lius believes that some of the "cards" have gone to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
Ukraine has turned the front into a grave for the Russian army. Every month, the Russian Federation loses about 35,000 military personnel.
At the same time, Ukraine is striking oil facilities, factories and infrastructure deep inside Russia - up to 1,000 kilometers away.
Putin even had to ask Trump to influence Zelensky to stop Ukrainian drones from attacking the May 9 parade on Red Square.
"Putin promised the Russian people that he would protect their lives from war. But counting the deaths and economic costs affects all Russians and jeopardizes his control of power," the author said.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has strengthened its position with Trump. The Pentagon has been rapidly expending its stockpile of missiles and air defense systems in the Middle East, and Ukraine has changed the course of the war by learning how to shoot down Russian targets with cheap interceptors.
"Trump previously told Zelensky that Ukraine has 'no trump cards,' but now Kiev has its own technology and military solutions that the Pentagon is very interested in. And that gives Ukraine new leverage," the author emphasized.
The geopolitical damage that Russia and the United States have done to themselves is similar.
"Russia's failure to subdue Ukraine is the most expensive failed war in modern history. By intimidating neighbors like Finland, Putin has more than doubled the length of NATO's border with Russia through his own efforts," Luce noted.
Trump also mistakenly believed that Iran would provide the U.S. with a convenient new leader modeled on Venezuela. This was an illusion, and he did not listen to the experts, the author wrote.
Although China benefits from Putin's and Trump's mistakes, the main winners are the middle states, which are gradually increasing their influence (with the exception of Israel, for example), he said.
"US influence in the Middle East has actually waned. Iran is likely to become a regional force that other countries will have to reckon with. Ukraine, at the very least, will become a key NATO partner in a world that is no longer completely dependent on the US. In different ways, but Kiev and Tehran show how smaller countries can weaken much stronger states. Taiwan is not the only country scrutinizing these lessons," Luce concluded.
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