Lukashenko Is No Longer Worth Anything At All

Putin will not be able to protect his ally.

Six months ago, instead of not making grandfather angry, Ukrainians started to scare things. Moreover, the further they go, the less they restrain themselves. From reminders about Maduro's fate, to advice to take a closer look at the prospects after the Ukrainian strike on Moscow. Zelensky's public words about the non-public assignments he gave to Ukrainian intelligence regarding the Belarusian leadership sounded especially ominous. It was not for nothing that after these words Lukashenko asked for a meeting with Zelensky.

But Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga said that Ukraine has someone to talk to. And Ukraine has nothing to talk to Lukashenko about. Because for their TV sets, Lukashenko is a giant of geopolitical thought and the father of multipolar democracy. But for Ukraine he is nobody. Except, of course, for the fact that he is a war criminal who still has to answer for the march on Kiev and missiles flying from Belarus.

So intimidation seems to be a little bit past the stage. Because Lukashenko was intimidated for the same reason for which they tried not to anger him before. To avoid having a second front for the second time during the war. But if nothing depends on grandfather anyway, it is useless to scare him too. But it is possible not to be shy in expressions. The Ukrainian authorities are doing it with increasing pleasure. Because the prospect of opening the Belarusian front frightens Lukashenko now much more than it frightens Ukraine.

Actually, it does not seem that this prospect frightens the Ukrainian authorities in principle. The Belarusian army in its current state is not adapted for war in principle. For the Belarusian army to be sufficient for at least three days, the country must be mobilized. But if the country is mobilized and Belarusians are given weapons, then Lukashenko may not have enough for three days.

Russia certainly does not have an extra army for the Belarusian front. Russia does not have enough army for the fronts it has. The Russian and Belarusian armies might be enough to try to terrorize the border area with small sabotage groups. But given the fortifications that have been built there in recent years, this terror will cost itself.

The other day Security Secretary Alexander Wolfowitz said that 116 Ukrainian drones flew into Belarus during the week. And, according to Secretary Wolfowitz, some flew in for a reason, but with the purpose of damaging the Belarusian border infrastructure.

Specialists of the Institute for the Study of War believe that such statements prepare the ground to resume strikes on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. Because Putin believes that he needs escalation. And this is the only kind of escalation that he can afford.

Death of Koschei

But if Putin and Lukashenko allow themselves such a thing, then Ukraine can afford to do anything at all with respect to the Belarusian authorities.

The Commander of the Unmanned Operations Force of Ukraine Robert (Madjar) Brovdi has already warned that 500 priority targets for Ukrainian strikes have been identified on the territory of Belarus. But drones are not the only ones. If the Belarusian authorities get involved in the war, the Ukrainian intelligence can afford a lot with regard to the leadership of Belarus. Moreover, being in a legally and morally impeccable position. According to the principle: "We warned you.

Belarusian stability is stable as long as it is not touched. How long this stability will last if someone does touch it is a rhetorical question. I mean, if you don't check it, you won't know. But it seems that even Lukashenko himself does not believe that stability will be enough for him for a long time. And the Ukrainian authorities have a direct sense to check it.

It is common to say that changes in Belarus can happen after changes in Russia. I have always considered this thesis erroneous. It is exactly the opposite - changes in Russia can come from Belarus.

Lukashenko's Belarus is the weakest link of Putin's Russia. And where it is thin, it is necessary to cut. It would be desirable, of course, to cut without waiting for peritonitis. But what now? It is necessary to cut when the patient cannot resist.

Because, on the one hand, Putin will not be able to protect his ally. Putin hasn't been able to protect a single ally. There is no reason why Lukashenko should be an exception to this rule. And on the other hand, the loss of Belarus will trigger such processes in Russia that Putin's regime will find it hard to survive. Especially if Moscow ceases to be a peaceful city in the distant rear.

There may be another explanation. It's just that Lukashenko is no longer worth anything at all.

Andrei Bronishevsky, planbmedia.io

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com