Putin To Replace Gerasimov: Three Candidates Named

A forecast from an American think tank.

The American think tank CNA, which works with the Pentagon, has named three possible candidates to replace Valery Gerasimov as Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. The report notes that the current Chief of the General Staff will turn 71 this year—an unusually advanced age for such a position. This has fueled rumors that he may be replaced within the next year or two.

Among the most likely contenders, CNA names the Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces, Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev, Commander of the Moscow Military District Sergey Kuzovlev, and Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces Alexander Chaiko. It is noteworthy that on August 1, an assassination attempt was made on Chaiko in central Moscow, resulting in the death of his son-in-law.

Analysts drew their conclusions based on a study of the career paths of Russian officers and former Chiefs of the General Staff. Since 1997, every new Chief of the General Staff has held a leadership position in a military district prior to appointment and has had experience working within the General Staff or the Ministry of Defense. The typical age at appointment is between 55 and 62, usually with the rank of colonel general, followed by a rapid promotion to general of the army.

The CNA considers 50-year-old Andrei Mordvichev to be the most likely candidate. His career has progressed with unusual speed: he attained the rank of major general at age 37, colonel general at 47, and by age 49 was already leading the Ground Forces. In addition, Mordvichev has held leadership positions in all four military districts formed in 2010 and commanded the Central Military District.

According to CNA, Alexander Chaiko’s career path largely mirrors that of Gerasimov himself prior to his appointment as Chief of the General Staff. He has twice served as deputy chief of the General Staff and commanded the 20th Guards Army and the Eastern Military District. At 55, Chaiko is at the ideal age for an appointment within the next two to three years.

Sergey Kuzovlev currently heads the Moscow Military District, where the central military headquarters is located. As CNA notes, this district has historically served as a sort of springboard to high-ranking positions in the General Staff. Kuzovlev served on the staff of the 58th Guards Army and the 20th Guards Army, served in three military districts, and commanded troops in Chechnya, Syria, and Ukraine. At 58, he is considered an older candidate, but his appointment remains a possibility.

Separately, CNA emphasizes that the war against Ukraine has sharply accelerated personnel turnover in the Russian army. The average tenure in top command positions has fallen from 4.1 years between 2011 and 2021 to 1.4 years between 2022 and 2025. According to analysts, such frequent changes in commanders could reduce the effectiveness of troop management.

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