Yerevan Sent A Message To The Kremlin

Relations between the two countries have become strained.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has decided to recall the republic’s Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Russia, Gurgen Arsenyan. The decision stems from dissatisfaction with the diplomat’s performance and his inability to ease tensions between Yerevan and Moscow.

Relations between the two countries have deteriorated due to Armenia’s plans to move toward the European Union and signals regarding possible European integration. Political analyst Armen Chibukhchyan spoke about this on the FREEDOM, political analyst Armen Chibukhchyan

- Roughly the same thing happened with the previous ambassador. But you have to understand this: the Armenian ambassador to Russia is a man of Moscow. This has been the norm for decades. Even after the Velvet Revolution in Armenia, the same trend continued. If the ambassador is indeed replaced, it means that Pashinyan is dissatisfied with him. The prime minister will effectively signal to Moscow that Armenia no longer intends to send diplomats to Russia who are exclusively convenient for it—the situation is changing,” the speaker noted.

He noted that Gurgen Arsenyan is perceived not as a representative of Armenia’s interests, but as Moscow’s intermediary, conveying its messages to Yerevan.

- The previous ambassador Vagarshak Arutyunyan was also a man with close ties to Moscow—a Russian-speaking career officer and a graduate of a Russian military academy. So far, we cannot be 100% certain that the ambassador will be recalled, but, as the saying goes, there’s no smoke without fire. At the same time, appointing a new ambassador will not be an easy choice, because it requires Moscow’s approval,” Chibukhchyan emphasized.

Russia is demanding that Armenia return to the terms of the November 9, 2020, agreement, which could effectively mean the loss of Armenian statehood. Moscow insists on joint control of the Megrin Highway with Azerbaijan; however, after refusing to defend Armenia’s sovereignty, Yerevan began seeking support from the West. The U.S. and the EU have deployed monitoring missions that today effectively guarantee the country’s security.

- Azerbaijan’s claims continue: sometimes regarding the Armenian Constitution, sometimes regarding pseudo-historical claims about “Western Azerbaijan.” However, no such state has ever existed. These are attempts to keep the situation under control and, if necessary, to quickly reignite the conflict. So far, this has not succeeded solely because the West guarantees Armenia’s security and is trying to preserve its territorial integrity,” the analyst said.

According to him, Pashinyan has been telling Moscow outright for several months now that Armenia must regain control over its railways, since its Western partners do not want to cooperate with Russia.

“The conflict remains unresolved: if Yerevan falls under Moscow’s influence again, the West will cease to guarantee the country’s security, which effectively means a return to the terms of the November 9, 2020, agreement and the threat of losing its statehood. Transferring territory to Azerbaijan would deprive Armenia of its border with Iran, which would have extremely serious geopolitical consequences.

In that case, the country risks becoming a ‘Russian province.’ “Therefore, in essence, there is no choice: either Russia accepts the loss of influence and competes on an economic level, as Pashinyan proposes, or it continues to pressure Armenia,” Chibukhchyan suggested.

Moscow is aware that U.S. influence in the region is growing and fears that Armenia will ultimately choose a pro-Western path. But Russia, according to the expert, has no intention of accepting such a situation and will seek to thwart this course.

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