Denmark Warned Of A Russian Attack On NATO “in The Coming Months”

The Kremlin may carry out a limited military operation.

Russia may carry out a limited military operation against one of the NATO countries in the coming months, according to a statement by the Danish Defense Intelligence and Security Service (DDIS) of Denmark. According to its assessment, the risk of such a scenario remains “low but growing.” According to DDIS Director Thomas Arenkiel, there is a possibility that Russia will deploy a small number of military personnel, including some without identification marks, into the territory of a neighboring NATO country—“for example, under the pretext of protecting local Russian minorities.” He cited another possibility: the use of long-range weapons against infrastructure used to support Ukraine. Arenkiel emphasized that in this way, Russia would attempt to “divide the Alliance.”

At the same time, Danish intelligence considers a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO country “extremely unlikely.” According to DDIS estimates, it would take the Kremlin about six months to build up its forces for such an operation. At the same time, Denmark warned of an intensification of Russian hybrid operations against European countries. According to intelligence reports, these could include “devastating cyberattacks capable of crippling critical infrastructure” and sabotage operations with a high risk of casualties. The kingdom’s Minister of Defense Jeppe Bruse stated that Russia is currently under far greater pressure than at any time since the war began in February 2022, but “is not achieving its goals,” and is therefore attacking those who support Ukraine. At the same time, Danish authorities believe that the Kremlin will not be able to achieve a significant breakthrough on the front lines in the next six months.

Previously, Western intelligence agencies had repeatedly stated publicly that Russia could shift its focus to NATO countries in three to five years. However, the allies’ concerns have intensified following a series of attacks on European infrastructure that fell short of the threshold required to trigger Article 5 of the Alliance’s charter on collective defense.

According to Danish intelligence assessments, the Kremlin would still need two years to pose a real threat of a regional war and five years to launch a full-scale war in Europe.

Earlier, intelligence agencies in the Czech Republic, Sweden, Latvia, and Poland warned that Russia would soon attempt to test NATO’s readiness to respond. The head of the Czech Security and Information Service , Michal Koudelka , said that this could involve “a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, or a large-scale influence campaign,” and that it would occur “in the coming months”.

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