New loan won’t rescue Belarusian economy

Belarusian experts are convinced that the regime is overusing loans. And the new one won’t be a panacea.

Belarusian Prime Minister Andrei Kabyakou recently stated about Belarus’ desire to receive a loan of 100 bn Russian rubles.

At the moment, as said by the Belarusian Vice Prime Minister, 90% of Belarusian export to Russia is paid in Russian rubles, and 10% in other currencies. As said by Andrei Kabyakou, only 40% of Belarusian import is paid in Russian rubles, while 60% are paid by dollars and Euro, Deutsche Welle informs.

“We have understanding to the proposals of the Russian side to shift to accounts in Russian rubles completely,” noted the member of the Belarusian government. “But to substitute dollars and Euro by Russian rubles, certain credit resources are needed, and certainly not in market costs”.

Following the logics of Andrei Kabyakou, the new loan is needed exclusively for the aim of giving the Russian ruble a status of a regional currency. At the same time, as said by the deputy Finance Minister of Russia Dmitry Pankin, his country is not considering the appeal of Belarus to give 100 bn rubles loan in exchange to shifting to settling accounts in Russian rubles. As independent experts believe, Belarusian have little chances to persuade the Russian side that it is necessary to give a new loan to them.

As the former head of the National bank of Belarus Stanislau Bahdankevich believes, it is relatively hard to influence the decision of Russia on the loan, as Belarus does not have such possibilities. “Russia can always twist our arms, and not vice versa,” the expert stresses.

At the same time, according to Stanislau Bahdankevich, transition to Russian ruble in accounts with Russia won’t lift the main problem for Belarus, trade balance deficit. In this connection the new loan won’t be a universal remedy either.