Expert: A 150,000-strong Russian Force In The South Is Under Threat
2- 11.06.2026, 15:51
- 4,696
There may be new "gestures of goodwill" from the Russian occupiers.
Following strikes on the Chongar Bridge and other crossings at land entry points into Crimea, the logistics of the Russian occupiers came under serious pressure. Ukraine is effectively cutting off supply routes to the Russian Federation’s forces on the peninsula and in the occupied part of the Kherson region.
What does the destruction of bridges at the entrances to Crimea mean for the Russian military forces on the peninsula and in the occupied part of the Kherson region? Can we say that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are beginning a logistical blockade of the occupiers?
The website Charter97.org asked military expert and co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center in Kyiv, Oleksiy Melnik, for his comments:
— This does indeed mean cutting off the logistics of the Russian occupiers in Crimea, first and foremost. It is clear that the peninsula’s population is also affected by this, but primarily it serves purely military purposes.
Crimea is a springboard for the occupiers. They themselves call it an “unsinkable aircraft carrier.” It is a massive military base that provides logistics, from which “Shaheds” and ballistic missiles are launched across Ukraine. Until 2023, the peninsula was the main base of the Black Sea Fleet.
Therefore, the isolation of Crimea is, first and foremost, the isolation of the occupiers’ massive military base. In addition, supplies for the Russian forces were transported through the peninsula while the bridges were still operational, and continue to be transported now, albeit with limited capacity. This is one of the alternative logistics routes for supplying Russian troops stationed in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
Cutting off the land corridor, especially road and rail routes running through the south, poses a direct threat to the approximately 150,000-strong contingent of Russian occupation forces in this region.
— How likely is a new Ukrainian Armed Forces strike on the Kerch Bridge? If it is successfully disabled, what will this mean for the Russian army in Crimea and on the southern front?
— Currently, vulnerability of this bridge to strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is much higher than it was even a year ago, when the first successful attacks took place.
The question is different. There are differing opinions on the best time to do so if Ukraine decides to destroy or damage this bridge. I have also seen that analogies are drawn with the events of late 2022, when a Russian group in Kherson was pinned down against the Dnieper, left without supplies, and then the remnants of that group were given a tacit opportunity to withdraw from there.
This may be one of the options being considered when deciding on the timing of a strike against this bridge. If Russia makes what they then called a “difficult decision,” the Crimean Bridge may be left standing so that they do not fight to the last and do not resort to looting when the soldiers run out of food on Crimean territory.
There is another nuance that may also be taken into account. A disproportionately large number of the occupiers’ air defense assets are concentrated on guarding the Kerch Bridge. If the bridge is destroyed, then these air defense assets will be redeployed to other critical areas, which is probably not in Ukraine’s interest.
Therefore, the Crimean Bridge is now more vulnerable than before, but there are likely some considerations as to why this strike is not being carried out right now.
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