Sannikov: “Lack of reforms wrecks Belarusian economy”

Russian gas price is a secondary issue. Lukashenka has been deceiving Russia for a long time. If Russia wants stability, it shouldn’t place stake on the dictator.

Leader of the civil campaign European Belarus Andrei Sannikov and head of near abroad policy department of “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” Svetlana Gamova talked whether the Moscow-Minsk gas conflict will influence the presidential campaign in Vladimir Kara-Murza’s programme “Grani Vremeni” on RFE/RL's Russian Service.

“Lukashenka has been playing in Russia’s feild for a long time and deceiving Russia for a long time. If Russia wants to have a reliable partner in Belarus, it shouldn’t count on the dictatorial regime. Lukashenka cannot make any arrangements, he is not able to fulfill his promises. Let’s not reduce to gas wars, let’s remind milk conflicts, meat conflicts, sugar conflicts, candy conflicts, etc. these are not separate cases, this is a system.

If partners try to settle more problems under the table than at the table, it doesn’t give results. That is the reason why the Customs Union, Russia is trying to form, won’t be launched. There are no equal partners. If people make arrangements, they must keep their word,” Andrei Sannikov, the leader of the civil campaign European Belarus, said.

To a question if the Belarusian economy is able to cope with the Russian gas debt and pay it in within the period set by the Kremlin observer Svetlana Gamove noted:

“I think it’s not able. Belarus would pay, but how will it live then? It will have nothing to live on and nobody to lend from. The situation with the neighbours is not so good. The EU has its own problems to solve, it turns little attention to Belarus now, so the country cannot ask anything from the Union. The Americans have extended the sanctions against certain Belarusian officials, Canada has extended economic sanctions and so on. Ukraine will also take into account Russia’s opinion.

When asked whether the consequences of the new Russian policy towards Belarus will wreck the country’s economy, Andrei Sannikov said:

“The lack of reforms wrecks the Belarusian economy. There were promises to Russia, which demanded to start reforms to understand how Belarus works. Then promises to Europe and IMF, who supported Lukashenka’s regime in 2008, were given. The lack of reforms destroy the economy, as the rules of the game are not clear and it’s unknown how the economy will develop. It doesn’t develop now. This is not even stagnation, this is killing of economy and all economic schemes and infrastructures that were able to work. The economy won’t be able to cope with even a small price. It is in a state when it cannot produce normal income. The country eats what it’s managed to get from the IMF and Russia. So, changing the conditions of gas supplies, oil export duties are not of crucial importance,” the politician is sure.

As the European Belarus’s leader thinks, Russia has been saying for a long time that nobody expect for Lukashenka will secure Russia’s interests.

“The changes Belarus expects (the changes will definitely come) will provide for more predictable relations between Belarus and Russia. I am absolutely not scared of oil and gas prices, if conditions are clear, if everything is arranged, if I know the supplies are predictable and won’t be cut. Changing the rules of the game of oil and gas deliveries, as Lukashenka does, means damaging the Belarusian economy in a greater scale than it has been damaged by his rule.

We want normal relations with Russia and Europe. We want to join the European Union, and this will be profitable for Russia. The region should finally get rid of its mark of a sharper, stain of a sharper that Belarus has now. We are not like that, Lukashenka doesn’t represent all people,” Sannikov said.

The full text of the programme’s transcripts lies HERE.

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