The Chances of Lukashenka's Faction Have Reduced to Zero

Tyrannical regimes are beginning to collapse both in Belarus and in Russia.

"All people are born free and equal in dignity and rights." (Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Adopted by Resolution 217 A (III) of the UN General Assembly of December 10, 1948. Article 1). And it's not just words. The desire for freedom is inherent in people, and in many living creatures, genetically. For example, even a domestic cat, not to mention an initially free tiger, strives for independence. Although, both animals and people are sometimes ready to exchange freedom or part of it for comfort and good food. Precisely for this, and not on the overseer's club. This never happens voluntarily.

However, for the majority of people, especially educated and cultured people, even "a glass of vodka and a crackling" are not enough. Yes, you can put people in cages, somehow train, but the desire for freedom still remains in them. This is in the genes, and this must be taken into account. To illustrate, you can even conduct an experiment with a spitz: cut his ration and start regularly educating him with a baton. And it will immediately become clear that even the spitz does not like such an attitude towards itself. People do not like it even more. So a purely repressive tactic is a losing option anyway.

Yes, a person can be deprived of freedom, but this only strengthens the desire for it, and not vice versa, as our outgoing government believes. This is the way it happens with us, and the events of the last year have proved it. The stronger the repression is, the stronger is the desire for freedom and rejection of tyranny. The mild dictator, giving "a glass of vodka and a crackling," was somehow tolerated. Therefore, harsh tyrannies are, in fact, short-lived. Yes, tyrants are usually remembered for a long time, but how long did they rule? Most often, not for long.

Since the desire for freedom is in the genes, totalitarian systems' construction is almost always masked as a struggle for freedom. Even Lukashenka explains his actions by his unwillingness for the people to "walk under the whip," though it's not clear whose, while the people are already walking under the whip or the baton of his regime. "There's small choice in rotten apples." However, in recent months, our regime has thrown away almost all the "fig leaves" and is less and less hiding that it is building an analog of North Korea or Kampuchea since Pol Pot. I am not quoting the corresponding "leakages" and articles from the Spetsnaz magazine. Otherwise, it will be propaganda of extremism or Pol Pot's ideas.

When people realize that they have been enslaved even more instead of being liberated, they always begin to resist. Resistance can be active, it can be passive, but it always arises. Passive resistance is often even worse for tyrants because it cannot be suppressed. Even strict and thorough observance of the dictator's orders can destroy the system if these orders are inadequate. Like when all the regime forces are thrown into "cutting ribbons" and painting graffiti, and abandoned infrastructure is quickly falling apart, just like we have this winter. Yes, and it was the passive resistance that destroyed the USSR, and the power was somehow coping with the active one.

Freedom is a social concept. The almost complete refusal to observe citizens' rights and freedoms (they say: "sometimes there is no time for the laws") led to the collapse of the country's security rating. Belarus dropped from 16th to 114th place in the countries' safety rating. This follows from the Numbeo service data for 2021, which compares the safety index in all countries of the world. Before us, there are Zimbabwe and the Dominican Republic (112th and 113th places, respectively), right behind us - Kenya and Libya (115th and 116th places). In general, they collapsed almost to the level of belligerent Libya. So much for "sometimes not up to the laws." And the consequences here will be all-encompassing, both social and economic. Who will bring money to such a country or go as a tourist? And their own qualified specialists and business will flee from such an unfree and unsafe country, and they are already actively fleeing.

And if the regime took only six months to fall 98 positions in the security rating, then it will take years to regain its positions. Under the condition of another power, moreover, this will not return them for decades. However, it will not last that long. And this means that neither normal, well, with money, tourists will go to such a country, except for some extreme people, investors will not come either. Those who came earlier will sooner leave. So, on BT, you can broadcast as much as you like that Lukashenka's country is the most peaceful, stable, and secure. But who is watching BT, except for the old village women, not to mention the foreign countries? They watch CNN, hypothetically, monitor independent resources on the network, and are guided by international ratings. And there is a completely different picture, to put it mildly.

Freedom is also an economic concept. Where the genetic desire for freedom is taken into account, society grows richer. Take Switzerland, for example, the greatest possible freedom and maximum prosperity. It is constantly among the three world leaders. In tyrannical societies, almost all resources are often spent on maintaining the regime of non-freedom. Or else "the prestige of the state," as they say. For any people, little is left. We have about the same system. Therefore, we constantly enter the top three states, not the richest but the poorest in Europe. And it's good that it's not in the world yet, although it is still ahead even in the foreseeable future with such tendencies. You can also give an example of two Koreas, North and South. Or our HTP. Free people worked there, and they earned clearly above average.

Now, the HTP is being "strangled" - and this is how we get a "natural experiment." Let's look at the financial results that the HTP will show in the new conditions of non-freedom. However, it is already obvious that the results will be worse. In general, we all will all live poorer, even the AMAP and the government. The "food base" will be narrowed. Although in the first place, of course, the most disadvantaged will suffer. They are already suffering.

Of course, freedom is not the only basic need for living beings. Moreover, some needs may have a higher priority. But still, this basic need always exists. "To live kneeling" and "to walk under the whip" - not a single living creature has been programmed for this by nature. So it is in vain that our old government is trying to impose this on people; such a policy only increases the dislike for it and increases the craving for liberation. Even purely psychologically, people are already very sick of constantly "walking under the whip," especially young, active, and creative people. It did not work for 26 years to raise slaves out of them, and it will not work.

So the ruling faction has no chance, although it will be able to hold out for some time. Especially if Putin helps, in case he himself is not overthrown. A. Nevzorov, for example, predicts that the Putin regime will last no more than a year. Nevertheless, tyrannical regimes are highly unstable. Freedom is a natural need for people.

Yuri Pshennik, Our Opinion