ISW Uncovers Russia's Plan On Capitulation In Kherson

Russia may be preparing a provocation under someone else's flag.

The Russian authorities are creating information conditions to justify the planned retreat of the Russian army from Kherson region, as part of this campaign the Russians may attack the Kakhovka hydropower plant and blame it on Ukraine.

These are the conclusions drawn by analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"The commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin, said during an address on Russian television that the Russian military leadership has to make 'difficult decisions' on Kherson region and accused Ukraine of plans to strike civilian and residential infrastructure in Kherson region," the analysts noted.

They also drew attention to the words of the head of the occupation administration of Kherson Region, Vladimir Saldo, about evacuating Russians from the western bank of the Dnieper River ahead of a "large-scale Ukrainian offensive".

According to analysts, Surovikin and Saldo's statements may be an attempt to create information conditions for Russia's complete retreat across the Dnieper river and the surrender of Kherson and a large part of Kherson Region to advancing Ukrainian troops.

At the same time, the Russian command may believe that the break of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam can cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnieper and prevent or delay the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces across the river.

Analysts said the Russians were thus trying to achieve two goals - to blame Ukraine for the material damage and loss of life and to use the flood to cover their retreat.

"The Kremlin may try to use such a false-flag attack to cast a pall over the news of the third humiliating retreat of Russian troops, this time from western Kherson Region," ISW experts summarized.