Dzmitry Bandarenka: Ukraine Can First Neutralize Lukashenka To Defeat Putin

Belarusians will back it for this.

How realistic is sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine? What are the capabilities of the Kalinouski regiment? How can Belarusians achieve liberation from Lukashenka's dictatorship and preserve the country's independence? The website Charter97.org talked about this with the coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Dzmitry Bandarenka.

– The war changed everything. Have the chances for changes in Belarus increased in this relation?

– Yes, the war changed everything. Therefore, the situation in Belarus will also change. It has already changed. Belarus became a participant in the war because of Lukashenka, and although no retaliatory strikes were inflicted on the territory of Belarus by the decision of the Ukrainian leadership, nevertheless, the dictator exposed the Belarusian people to great danger with his policies. It was, among other things, an unconstitutional decision, because even after his stupid “referendum”, Belarus does not have the right, in accordance with the Constitution, to be a participant in military aggression.

Radical changes have undergone: Russian troops enter the territory of Belarus whenever they want, and decide to strike the territory of a neighbouring country or countries with any means like missiles, aircraft, artillery, or sending troops from Belarusian territory. Now we can already talk about (the well-known historian Yuri Felshtinsky discusses it) that a nuclear strike can also be delivered from the territory of Belarus.

– Yuri Felshtinsky says that in this regard, Putin is interested today in maintaining the formal independence of Belarus, since then a retaliatory nuclear strike could be delivered not against the Russian Federation, but against our country.

– I agree that Belarus actually is only formally independent under Lukashenka. A foreign country is conducting military operations from the territory of Belarus. We fell in the position of communist Poland of the 1970-80s when there was a threat that a nuclear strike would be launched on the crossings located on the Vistula in Poland in the event of an attack by Soviet troops on the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany. This danger then prompted the well-known colonel of the Polish General Staff, Ryszard Jerzy Kukliński, to oppose this plan. He provided information to the Americans to prevent this from happening.

Events have actually reached these extremes and entire Europe is in great danger. The outbreak of war in Ukraine could have been avoided if we had won in 2020 and if Ukraine and the West had really supported the protesting Belarusians at that time. However, since this did not happen, now we have what we have.

– How realistic is sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine? Now they already indicate a high probability of this step.

– I myself have seen enough video and I can say for sure that Belarusian troops have already participated in the attack on Ukraine. The Ukrainian military also said that Belarusian helicopters flew into the Zhytomyr region. It is known that there were captured citizens of Belarus from among sabotage groups. Ukrainians from the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions said that they saw Belarusian soldiers in both Belarusian and Russian uniforms who participated in the attack. We know that in different cities there were and are secret burials for the Belarusian military who died in Ukraine. Also, we do not know how many Lukashenka's warriors are in refrigerators and mass graves in the neighbouring country.

So will they enter further? The probability is high, and Lukashenka does not play any role here. Of course, a repetition of a massive invasion of precisely Russian troops will be more dangerous for Ukraine. And as far as I know, the Ukrainian military and the military of the NATO countries estimate the potential of the Belarusian army very low from all points of view. The Kremlin will decide whether there will be a new invasion and whether Belarusians will be involved.

– Does this mean that Lukashenka no longer controls anything in Belarus?

– Generally speaking, yes. And it is strange that today there are conversations about transiting Ukrainian wheat to the Baltic ports through the territory of Belarus, and officials from the administration of Volodymyr Zelensky say that they are pursuing “realpolitik” in relation to the Belarusian regime.

But I have a question. What will Ukraine do if nuclear weapons are deployed in Belarus? If 700 missiles fired from the territory of Belarus did not force the Ukrainian authorities to change the “realpolitik” towards Lukashenka, then I don’t know what else should happen. They need to think over who they are going to trade with today. In addition, the media are now talking about the Kremlin's plans to hold a referendum in Belarus on joining Russia.

– In regard to this referendum. What kind of reaction do you expect within Belarus and abroad?

– Belarusians themselves need to think about what will happen to our country. We can see that Ukrainians rise up in arms to protect the independence and territorial integrity of their country. They are looking for military allies, asking for and seeking military assistance and supply of the most modern weapons. Belarusians should do the same. Non-violent resistance can be used in an internal struggle, but if there is a threat not only of partial occupation but also of the loss of independence and international legal personality, there is no other way out: men are obliged to defend their country with weapons in their hands. Enough! There are no other options left!

And in this case, the Office of Tsikhanouskaya, since it is believed that they have a successful international policy and so many international visits, today should concentrate on making an appeal for military assistance to Belarusians because of the threat of complete occupation and loss of independence of Belarus. Belarusian politicians should also appeal to Ukrainians for military assistance. Because these are not only theoretical arguments: this year the Belarusians may lose their independence and even become the object of a retaliatory nuclear strike.

– The last two years have shown that it is hardly worth hoping for the Office of Tsikhanouskaya.

– Well, they are willing to listen sometimes. Let it be from the hundredth time, that they realized that it was necessary to talk about the need to impose sanctions. At least the murders of political prisoners in Belarus have stopped. After all, the authorities understand only the force and sanctions caused huge damage to the Lukashenka regime.

Prime Minister Raman Halouchanka's statement that exports will miss $16-18 billion suggests that the Belarusian budget, which today is about $10 billion, will have no currency in the budget. God is willing to let them find 3-4 billion for this budget. Accordingly, inflation can reach hundreds of percent per year.

Lukashenka's latest statement that they will sell diesel in barrels and load potassium bags indicates that the sanctions are working.

Obviously, I have no hope for the Office of Tsikhanouskaya, but everyone needs to understand and keep in mind that we owe it to past generations of Belarusians and to future ones to preserve the independence of our country. It took many Belarusians decades to understand that they had to fight for their freedom and their choice in the streets and that they had to go out to protest. Belarusians understood this at least in 2020. Now, it's not enough. We must be prepared to defend our freedom with weapons in our hands and find allies to preserve Belarus as an independent state.

– You are talking about the need to protect the independence of Belarus by force of arms. How can this be done in conditions when people do not have weapons, and practically the entire army and special services today are on the side of Lukashenka's dictatorship and the Russian occupiers?

– Firstly: we need to understand that these actions are necessary and inevitable. Non-violent actions are insufficient. Secondly: we are to make organizational efforts to create Belarusian armed structures.

We saw that there were Belarusian men, Belarusian heroes who were engaged in the creation of such a military unit in Ukraine. We need to look for allies and don't be modest here. If Ukrainians have the right to defend their country, Belarusians must demand the same.

Thirdly: we must do everything so that the sanctions against the Lukashenka regime are not lifted. There are no reasons for Putin to have a territory that is under such tough sanctions and where it will be necessary to feed 10 million people at once, because the country, in fact, has no budget.

Fourth: there is the solidarity of Belarusians abroad and the readiness of tens of thousands of people to return to the country at some point in order to defend its independence.

Well, I also think that for many thousands of Belarusians who are in law enforcement agencies, it is one thing to fight the opposition, and quite another to speak on the side of the aggressor country and directly fight against their state. The state of mind in Belarus is already different. We observe that now veterans of the armed forces or special services officers who appeared abroad are participating in the formation of Belarusian units in different countries.

– How can international sanctions against Belarus and the defeat of the Russian army in Ukraine affect the tendencies in the Belarusian army?

– I know that the defeat of the elite units of the Russian army in Ukraine made a very strong impression on the leadership of the Armed Forces of Belarus. When these Russian “super-Rambos” came to exercises, for example, in Marjina Horka or Brest, Belarusians looked at them with admiration, because they went through Libya, Syria, and Chechnya and they had advanced weapons and equipment. And suddenly these units were completely destroyed in just a month. The main units, not just of the Russian special forces, but the airborne troops in general, have been ground up by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And this has already influenced the behaviour of the military leadership of the Republic of Belarus.

– What if they enter the war and the coffins with their corpses go back?

– They saw the coffins. We know that Belarusians were engaged in cleaning the Russian armours and everything remained from the "liberators of Ukraine", they were shocked. The Belarusian military was actually a funeral squad for the Russians and saw with their own eyes that the morgues were littered with the bodies of Russian soldiers, and thousands of the “denazifiers” had been maimed.

Certainly, not only Belarusians, but also the whole world froze in anticipation of what is happening now in Ukraine. If at first, the Russians and Putin behaved like crazy (attacking in 7-8 directions with a relatively small number of troops), now the Russian troops are concentrated in the Donbas and the situation there is very difficult, because they still have an advantage, especially in artillery and long-range missiles.

It is clear that if Putin is defeated in Ukraine, this will quickly affect the situation in Belarus. There's no doubt. However, it may also happen that the Ukrainian leadership decides that in order to defeat Putin, it is necessary to neutralize his ally, Lukashenka. Ukraine has every reason to fight the Belarusian dictatorship, which has become an accomplice of the aggressor.

Moreover, if there are still provocations from the territory of Belarus or inclinations to open a new front, then Ukraine in response can already fight the Lukashist's army in the most serious way. This will directly affect the situation in Belarus, unlike, for example, in Russia, where the majority of people are duped and generally support Putin’s imperial ideas. Our vast majority of the population hates Lukashenka, does not want to become part of Russia and is only waiting for the moment when they can oppose this regime.

Yuri Felshtinsky also says that NATO will have the right to intervene directly in the situation in Belarus if Russia tries to introduce nuclear weapons there. We know that the Iskanders located on the territory of our country hit up to 500 kilometers and can carry nuclear warheads. According to Felshtinsky, NATO will do everything to prevent the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus.

That is why I repeat my forecast, which I have already expressed that the situation may turn out so that Belarusian volunteers, together with Ukrainian volunteers, with volunteers from other NATO countries, will enter Belarus in order to support the uprising of the Belarusian people, and, perhaps, in order to stop the aggression of Putin and Lukashenka regimes.

– There were calls for the liberation of Belarus In Ukraine, unfortunately, there were not so many of them. When can it become mainstream?

– It will not become mainstream, because a narrow circle of people decides it in Ukraine, the same who actually provides military and political leadership within the country. We know a different story about the long-term warnings of the Ukrainians by the Belarusian opposition about the possibility of attacking Kyiv from the “northern balcony” if the democratic movement in Belarus remains without support. I (and not only me actually) spoke about this in the Ukrainian media, in conversations with analysts, experts, and Ukrainian politicians. They said no, Lukashenka is their "dad”, they like him, he supplies them with gasoline and he promised that there would never be an attack.

They say that there will be "feedback" regarding what happened in Kherson, and why the Russians so easily entered from the Crimean side. But the same “feedback” should be provided regarding Kyiv, which was almost encircled. After all, the danger for Ukraine during the aggression from the north was much greater than in the Kherson region, because it threatened the capital, where the top military and political leadership was located. But the decision in any case lies with the Ukrainian leadership. I am sure that the military of both Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic Partnership are well aware of the strategic position of Belarus.

– You mentioned the Kalinouski Regiment, which is fighting in Ukraine. What are the real capabilities of the regiment and what kind of support is needed today?

– I want to say that I have known one of the founders of the Belarusian regiment Vadzim Kabanchuk for a long time, since the time of the first Freedom March, since the creation of the Zubr movement and the Krai organization. After the start of the first war in Ukraine, we talked about the need to create a military unit of Belarusians. Hundreds of Belarusians fought at that time in volunteer battalions, and later in the regular units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

But the Ukrainian leadership, frankly, did not want to create a unit consisting only of Belarusians. For the same reason, trade with the Lukashenka regime continued, and Lukashenka did not want the Ukrainian side to help create such a force. We know that not only Ukrainians, but also the governments of other countries, also interfered with the activities of democratic organizations and Belarusian media in the emigration for the sake of trade with Lukashenka. That's what happened.

At one time, I gave Vadzim the book "Pilsudski". The book tells how the future leader of the Polish state, Pilsudski, trained officers at different levels from Poles living in different parts of Prussia, Austria-Hungary and Russia in Galicia, so that they would become the basis of the armed forces of independent Poland in the future. When the First World War began, the Polish Legions in the amount of several hundred people fought on the side of Austria-Hungary. Subsequently, many of the legionnaires became prominent military leaders of the emerged Poland.

Vadzim and I discussed that this could be an example for Belarus as well. Nowadays, Belarusian volunteers have not only gained combat experience but are also forming a regiment consisting of Belarusian patriots.

This is the will, energy, and organizational abilities of our men. They were able to achieve this. We, inside Belarus and abroad, must do everything to help our fighters, so that they are shod, dressed, have weapons, and have military equipment. We must do everything to make the Kalinouski Regiment a real military force.

At the same time, the Ukrainian leadership must understand that the task of the Belarusian volunteers is not only to help Ukraine survive at a difficult moment, but to become part of the army that will be an ally of the Ukrainian state for many decades. This is a special historical moment that happens once in 100 years, and maybe once in several hundred years. We see what absolutely new relations have been built between Ukraine and Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania, and everyone is talking about the need to create a new union with the participation of democratic Belarus and, possibly, the United Kingdom. This can change the balance of power in the whole of Europe.

Considering all the difficulties, and the improbability of the daily tasks that the Ukrainian leadership faces, we rely on the wisdom of both the military and politicians of Ukraine. We hope they understand that now it is impossible to target only one direction and consider the threat from the north of Ukraine to disappear. There is a need to have thoughtful and clear actions in regard to Belarus.

– Now, the whole world is talking about the inevitability of Putin's defeat in this war, the defeat of his regime in Russia and the possible collapse of the empire. Accordingly, the Lukashenka regime will also become completely unviable. Does it make sense to wait until everything falls apart on its own, or is it still necessary to do something?

– If Belarusians today are only spectators in this situation, they will remain spectators tomorrow. We no longer respond to the threats that have occurred. Some crazy collective farmer endangered the lives of both the military personnel of Belarus and ordinary citizens by starting a war, and taking part in aggression, without discussing it with anyone. We're already late.

We need to grow up fast. Yes, probably, the Belarusians lived their undistinguished lives in the Soviet Union so poorly that even a semi-market economy gave the Belarusians an opportunity to show their entrepreneurial qualities, commerce or intellectual abilities. People were just happy that they have a car, that they have a mobile phone, a computer, and that they can go to Turkey.

But there is a question: what country are you living in if everyone can end up in jail for wearing the wrong colour socks? Either you will be a colony of some other people, not the most advanced, or you need to build your own state. But you need to make efforts in order to build your state, you need to apply energy and you need to achieve this.

Certainly, we must respond to what will happen, first of all, in Ukraine and neighbouring countries. We risk being left behind if we do not demonstrate our will to live, the will to preserve the Belarusian nation, and to build a new democratic Belarusian state from scratch. It may happen that then there will be no Belarus at all because the country will be divided between Russia and other countries. This is also a possible scenario.

We shall not be spectators. God gave us a beautiful country located in the heart of Europe. We must preserve free and strong Belarus for our children and grandchildren.

Look: there are a little more than a million Estonians, but they are players, members of NATO, members of the European Union, and they have created an advanced economy that meets world standards. We can do that as well.

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