Blasting Crimea: Important Signal For Invaders

Experts assessed the consequences of the latest explosions on the peninsula.

Cases of explosions at military facilities in the Crimea, nicknamed “bangs”, have become regular. The incident with an alleged attack by an unmanned vehicle on the headquarters of the Black Sea Navy in Sevastopol occurred on July 31, Sunday. Explosions at the airfield in Novofedorivka happened on August 9, on Tuesday. On August 16, exactly one week later, there were explosions at the military depots in Mayske, and at the airfield in Hvardiyske.

Crimea.Realii, together with experts, studied the causes and consequences of tendentious explosions on the territory of the Crimean peninsula.

From negligence to a terrorist attack and an increase in the radiation background in the Crimea

They store in the depots in Russia obsolete ammunition and weapons, even charges and cars of the legendary Katyushas. The manual for the operation of rocket and artillery weapons with the relevant safety regulations was approved by the Deputy Minister of Defense — Chief of Armaments of the Russian Armed Forces. The structure of the ministry has a service for the supervision of the circulation of weapons.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced sabotage, and the Russian authorities in the Crimea — “acts of terrorism”. Prior to this, the cause of emergencies was called “detonation of ammunition” and “negligence”.

The Ukrainian authorities and the military did not take responsibility for the explosions in the Russian-annexed Crimea.

A Crimean blogger with the nickname Mrs Sofa posted a video from Novofedorivka, where he measured the level of radiation and recorded it at around 139 microroentgens per hour. The author of the video claims that the background rose after the emergency at the military airfield.

The possibility of deploying nuclear weapons on the peninsula and the presence of atomic and nuclear facilities there was again discussed immediately after the illegal annexation of the Crimea.

The consequences of the state of emergency are the key to the objective reasons and the de-occupation of Crimea

Commenting on the situation at the request of Crimea.Realii, the former representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and OSCE special expert Boris Babin drew attention to the need for a thorough study of the consequences of the incidents in the context of a change in the rhetoric of the occupying and federal Russian authorities about the causes of the explosions.

“I have no reason to refute the position of the Ukrainian authorities, who talk about the “bungling” or negligence of the occupiers. There are also statements by the occupiers about the cause of the first explosions in Novofedorivka — negligence. Now they are talking about alleged sabotage. In this case, we should be interested in the consequences. Among such consequences is the destruction of equipment, since this is an airfield. The explosion at the airfield disables equipment,” said Boris Babin.

He considers the consequences of the explosions important from the point of view of the de-occupation of the Crimea, since the loss of aviation units may result in a decrease in the intensity of shelling of the territory of Ukraine by the aggressor.

“There is a very specific trend here, and I think the occupiers really have something to worry about. Most likely, they are not able to protect their bases from further facts of “negligence,” the expert emphasized.

Mykhaylo Honchar, the president of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, pointed out in an interview with a Crimea.Realii correspondent the tendentiousness of the statements of Russian representatives and the Kremlin that the occupied Crimean peninsula is a special and inviolable territory for attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or for any other actions.

“As you can see, life has shown that this is not so. The Crimea is the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, a signal was sent — the status of the territories of 1991 should be returned, when, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the independence of Ukraine was proclaimed, as well as new independent states appeared, and the administrative borders of the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialistic Republic were recognized as state borders. We are liberating the territories occupied by Russia since 2014. The hint was made in a hybrid manner with recommendations “not to indulge in smoking in unspecified places, where it is prohibited.” Although the detonation of, say, an aircraft bomb of the FAB-500 type — a high-explosive aircraft bomb weighing 500 kg, of which 300 kg of TNT — or another cannot be from a cigarette butt, as Aksenov and others claim. It is impossible to detonate such a bomb without a detonator. This is the specificity of TNT explosives, and the detonators are always stored separately in a secure warehouse. “Goblins”, obviously, “received a training manual”, which someone in a hurry wrote on their knees or dictated on the go in the Kremlin,” the expert said.

Mykhaylo Honchar emphasized that the causes and consequences of the explosions in the Crimea are an absolutely clear message to both Russia and the international community, that Ukraine's goal is unchanged — the liberation of all occupied territories and a return to the status quo ante (a Latin expression meaning “the situation that existed before the war” — Crimea.Realii) — as of February 20, 2014, and not as of February 24, 2022.

“I think this is the beginning, then there will be a continuation. And we, like the enemy, will be surprised more than once ... But, as they say, we have to do our own thing,” he said.

Does the “careless” blasting of the Crimea have a nuclear taste?

“As for the consequences, taking into account the possible presence of tactical nuclear weapons on the peninsula, information about this appeared more than once after 2014 against the backdrop of repair and restoration work at the Feodosia-13 facility in the Kyzyltash tract ... At the same time, there was no final confirmation from our side, neither from the US intelligence community nor any other NATO members. It must be clearly understood: the specifics of storing special items — nuclear warheads — suggests that they are stored in very reliable and protected places. This is not like FABs, which can be stored in open areas in bunkers at a relatively short distance from the squadron's location,” Mikhail Gonchar said.

Boris Babin pointed to the ongoing nuclearization of the peninsula by Russia.

“According to sources, the invaders are very nervous in Novofedorivka in connection with these explosions, they check everything there with the help of Geiger counters for radiation contamination. If there is precisely this kind of negligence, especially at those bases where the storage of individual nuclear warheads is not ruled out, then we can indeed state that the occupiers are responsible for the radioactive contamination of the environment as a result of the detonation of ammunition. After all, if a nuclear warhead hits a fire zone or another natural disaster, a nuclear explosion most likely will not occur, but the projectile will collapse, and the area will be contaminated,” he added.

Boris Babin emphasized that there is no verified data in this regard, and no one has the desire to disperse the panic. The only way, as the expert said, to secure both the Crimea and southern Ukraine from the nuclear threat is the de-occupation of these territories.

“And therefore, without escalating the situation, it is necessary to monitor the radiation background on the peninsula. This can also be done remotely. I am sure that this is being done,” concluded Boris Babin.

“In the case of the Crimea, Ukraine operates on its own territory, which means it is always careful. What happened, those three bombings of the Russian military infrastructure of Russia, should be regarded as our actions in response to nuclear blackmail on its part. After all, we see the Kremlin’s use of methods of nuclear blackmail and terrorism on the example of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, where Ukraine and Europe are the objects of such blackmail in the inherent “demonstrative form,” Mykhaylo Honchar added.

Stalin's methods in the investigation of the emergency

In the Crimea, after a series of explosions, they started talking about Stalin's methods and increased repression against those who disagree with the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia and full-scale Russian military aggression against Ukraine.

According to Mykhaylo Honchar, the topic of “spies, terrorists and saboteurs” was artificially developed by the Russian special services in the Crimea immediately after the occupation of the peninsula by Russia.

“Just remember that the first arrests began in 2014, this is the case of Valentyn Vyhovskyi, then the cases of the same Oleh Sentsov and Oleksandr Kolchenko, the case of Shtyblikov, Bessarabov, Dudka ... Now the occupiers will again “fabricate” cases. They are also aware of what caused the “bangs”. Therefore, in defiance of Aksenov's promises that the Crimea has become completely safe with the advent of Russia, questions arise. Now it's not safe in the Crimea! Neither for the locals or for those who “come in large numbers”. Therefore, collaborators choose the path of action in their characteristic manner of the Stalin era and, above all, in relation to the Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians,” said Mykhaylo Honchar.

The New York Times, citing a high-ranking Ukrainian official, reported that an elite Ukrainian military unit was involved in the explosions near Dzhankoy in the occupied Crimea. The official spoke on condition of anonymity.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky called on Ukrainians living in the occupied territories not to approach the military facilities of the Russian army located there, given the reports of explosions.