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Two Wagner PMC Units And Kuban Regiment Out Of Touch In Liman

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Two Wagner PMC Units And Kuban Regiment Out Of Touch In Liman

The Russian front starts to "crumble".

The latest drama in Putin's ad hoc/unplanned escalation in his war is now unfolding near Liman, Austrian military analyst Tom Cooper writes.

In fact, the defeated 1st Guards Tank Army, which probably included elements of the useless 2nd Guards All-Army and the dull 41st All-Army, has given way to attacks by the 25th Mechanized and 66th Motorized Rifle Brigades. In the last 36 hours, the latter two brigades liberated Lozova and Peski Radkovske, then took the Russians by surprise and, turning eastward, reached the village of Novoye and, northward, Makiivka.

To the south of that area, the Russians report lost contact with two PMC units ("Bars-13" and "Bars-16") two nights ago. The Kuban Regiment should still be in Liman.

This "situation" began to unfold on September 23: as of the morning of September 25, it was bad enough for the Russian Defence Ministry and the Southern USC to have thrown the air force into direct attacks on the advancing Ukrainian units. As it had been a few weeks earlier, it resulted in heavy losses to the Russians in aviation and helicopters. The Ukrainians claim to shoot down: 1 Ka-52, 1 Mi-8, 1-2 Su-25s (apparently both of the 25th Mechanized Brigade, near Lozova), 1 Su-30SM (near Lozova), 1 Su-34, 1 Su-34 (both Su-34 crews safely ejected: a CSAR helicopter picked one up, soon after the other had to return to their own) and 6 UAVs.

This is a normal situation when one operates superturbo fighters equipped with radars with a claimed range of 400 km, LERX, "ducks" and thrust vector control engines for super maneuverability - but without PGMs, and the crew has little training in deploying unguided bombs.

Some ask me why the Russians are still fighting. They conduct repeated counterattacks against Ukrainian units advancing north of Liman. According to Ukrainian reports (though almost always confirmed by Russian complaints), they are all easily repulsed, usually with "huge" losses of the involved RF Armed Forces units).

Why aren't the Russians retreating to the defensive lines near Svatovo and Kremenna? Some wonder if there has been a complete collapse of the Russian command chain. It may only regard to how poorly informed they are and their bad decision-making.

I cannot help repeating the same explanation I have repeatedly offered before: it happens because Putin is in charge of everything.

In any case, no one below his level dares to give any orders without his consent.

Putin is waging "his" war, completely ignoring reality, military doctrine, strategy, and tactics. He doesn't care what the SIS and Special Forces may tell him, or about the losses of the Russian Armed Forces, or about "keeping the troops to defend any locations on any territory."

Thus, people like me "should" forget almost everything we thought we knew about the RF Armed Forces and how they operate. It's not the RF Armed Forces' way of waging war but Putin's.

In general, he needs only time to hold his quasi-referendums, mobilize reservists, update their training, and deploy them in Ukraine. It takes days and weeks. Thus, Putin needs time.

By initiating counterattacks - regardless of how high the cost may be. He distracts the Ukrainians by slowing their advance (at least they have to clean up the battlefield, take prisoners of war, check which of the equipment the Russians left behind may still be useful, conduct additional reconnaissance to protect their flanks, etc.).

Thus, despite the losses, which Putin does not care about, it is all about time.

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