Grigorij Mesežnikov: The Russian Federation Has Lost Its Right To Exist

Its legitimacy is close to zero.

Almost half of the foreign policy experts polled by the Atlantic Council believe that Russia will collapse or become a failed state in the coming years. Hudson Institute analyst Luke Coffey shared this opinion. Is this scenario highly likely?

The website Charter97.org addressed the following question to the Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO) (Bratislava) Grigorij Mesežnikov:

– If we understand the term 'failed state' as a country that is unable to behave well in the international arena, fulfill its obligations and have regular relations with its neighbors, then Russia has already become a pariah state. This is, in fact, a partially bankrupt state. The international community is now deciding what to do with it and how to coexist with such a state.

To be honest, I'm not sure that Russia will collapse. Although, this would be the deliverance of the world from great risks and dangers, first of all, the expansionist and aggressive policy of this country. It is clear that if the Russian Federation suddenly collapses, then its former parts will deal with their own problems and will be less aggressive.

It still seems to me that Russian history very often gives examples of when centripetal tendencies prevail. I think that even a possible military defeat of Russia is unlikely to lead to its direct collapse. Although I emphasize that this would be the most desirable scenario. Nevertheless, it is very difficult for me to determine the forces that would implement such a scenario. Maybe these are some parts of the national elites of individual republics, but even then, apparently, not all of them.

It can be expected that some will separate, but it is difficult for me to imagine numerous independent, viable states with normal relations between themselves and the international community will be formed in the place of the current Russian Federation. However, I understand why such forecasts appear.

I believe that the state called the Russian Federation has lost its right to exist. Its legitimacy is close to zero, because, as I said, in international relations it is a pariah state, an aggressive subject that threatens the existence of all mankind.

After the Second World War, Nazi Germany was destroyed as a state and other state formations arose (today Germany is a single state), the Third Reich ceased to exist. It seems to me that the Russian Federation should cease to exist due to its actions and after it is defeated. Some other state should arise on the territory of the Russian Federation, but I have no particular idea of what kind of state it will be. My imagination doesn't go that far.

– Are there latent separatist sentiments strong in Russia? What are the hot spots?

– North Caucasus. Moreover, I’m talking about those republics where the indigenous population prevails. This is Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia, likely. Much depends on the ratio of the Russian or Russian-speaking population and the indigenous population. I proceed from the fact that this may be a pretext for potentially aggressive forces inside Russia. Not even such expansionist forces as the real Kremlin regime, but they just will not want to let these republics go due to the fact that there is a Russian-speaking population there that needs ‘protection’.

Firstly, we can talk about the republics of the North Caucasus, because they are located near the external border of the Russian Federation. It will be easier for them to get out. There is a fairly large Russian and Russian-speaking population in Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, they would be economically more prosperous, but their secession is unlikely because the regions are internal enclaves.

Even if legal regulations that allow national associations to exercise self-determination are adopted, it is difficult to imagine that something absolutely independent could arise on the internal territory of the Russian Federation. There are also Tuva and Buryatia. Although, you will agree, the Buryats are actively participating in the war in Ukraine, apparently, they are strongly identified with the current Russian state and there is no clear national opposition there.

I want to emphasize that I am not an insider, I do not have information about the true state of affairs in the national republics. I'm talking about what could happen using geographic, economic and demographic data. I don't quite understand the way to decide all this from a political point of view. Although, I emphasize once again that it would be easier to overcome imperialism, which is characteristic of a single centralized Russian state, if it ceased to exist in its current order.

– Can China and Turkey, which also have interests in the Turkic regions of the Russian Federation, take advantage of this situation?

– From a geographical point of view, I can rather imagine the activity of China in some regions of Siberia, in the territories adjacent to China. Economic expansion is already taking place. Obviously, it is beneficial for Beijing to have Russia weak, even if it remains within the same borders as it is now. It is much easier for China to deal with weak Russia in various situations.

As for Turkey and the republics of the Volga region, if there is any influence there, it is rather a cultural influence. In fact, it is difficult for me to imagine what other influence Turkey could have had in the depths of Russian territory, in the Volga region.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com