Military Major: Putting It In Simple Military Terms, Lukashenka Just Decided To Toady To Putin

China has its own agenda.

Lukashenka has been on a visit to China since February 28. The American Institute for the Study of War links his visit with the possibility that the Belarusian dictator may start helping to smuggle arms from China to Russia. How likely is this scenario, that Beijing will help the Kremlin with weapons?

This question was answered to the Charter97.org website by Major of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Reserve, veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war Oleksiy Hetman.

- Yes, this is what will happen. At first, Beijing proposed a 12-point "peace plan" which, in non-diplomatic terms, was simply laughed at. It was 12 points about nothing. Then they renamed it the "China position". They were warned by our friends in the US that if China crossed the red lines, it would face certain difficulties, sanctions.

It is clear that Russia for China is approximately, I don't want to offend Belarusians, like Belarus is for Russia. They do not see it as any serious competitor or partner. Russia is telling inside the country how great it is. For some reason even a lot of people in Belarus and Ukraine believe it.

However, one may open Wikipedia and look at the gross domestic product produced in Russia and compare it to the GDP of other countries. So, the Russian GDP is at the level of Brazil, less than in Britain, Germany, Italy. If you compare it to the USA or China, Russia produces 15-20 times less goods and services. Its economy is several times weaker. Even the Pentagon's budget is roughly three times larger than that of Russia.

Naturally, China doesn't want to quarrel with America over Russia. There is an informal agreement between the leaders of China and America. Not long ago, the leaders of these countries met. They decided that the world had become bipolar. China is on one pole, the US is on the other. This is the conclusion that can be drawn from these meetings. They will fight for leadership in the future but in this bipolar world Russia can't be seen at all.

Lukashenka came to negotiate with China about weapon deliveries via Belarus to Russia. So that China can bypass the sanctions that may be imposed on it as a result of cooperation with Russia.

I don't think that even by supplying some weapons to Russia via Belarus, China can somehow significantly improve the situation for the Kremlin on the front in Ukraine or make money. We are talking about amounts close to the margin of error. It is not fundamental for China.

It is fundamental for dictator Lukashenka. In simple military terms, Lukashenka decided to simply toady to Putin. To show him their alliance, to help.

I think that China will not go into conflict with the USA and the entire civilized world because of Russia. For China, the Russian Federation is not worth it.

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