Ukrainian General: West Sent Signal To Kremlin Through Shoigu

Allies will support Ukraine until the victorious end.

All Western means to help Ukraine and counter Putin's aggression are now intensified. The new phase of the counter-offensive will involve the latest equipment and weapons, including a tank and armoured fist to take enemy groups into encirclement. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with Obozrevatel by the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service in 2005-2010, Army General Mykola Malomuzh.

- Russian aggressor President Vladimir Putin again spoke about the "red lines" that the West has allegedly crossed by providing weapons to Ukraine. He also said he intended to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus in response to supplies of Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. In your estimation, how could Putin use the territory of Belarus, given all these threats?

- First of all, we need to consider the reasons why he has moved again to the rhetoric of deploying nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. It has to do with the very big problems he is having on the front. He has not implemented a single objective of his "special operation". He has not even managed to capture Bakhmut and the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions. His army is suffering very heavy losses. Putin has no good prospects for offensive operations anywhere, even though he is trying to demonstrate attacks on Avdiivka, Bakhmut and other settlements.

Putin had pinned his hopes that his pressure on the West would be effective, that Xi Jinping would step in. However, the Chinese head of state very cleverly backed away from the situation and refused a military alliance with Russia. This was a big blow to Putin. In addition, the ruling of the International Criminal Court in The Hague followed, which was another powerful blow to Putin's ambitions.

He has no prospects. New caravans of military aid are coming to Ukraine. This is high-class armaments and equipment, missile systems, tanks, armoured personnel carriers, aircraft, air defence systems, a very large quantity of ammunition of various types, including long-range missiles. And that is the prospect of our victories at the front.

The last argument that Putin has left is, of course, nuclear weapons. But he has been warned by both the US and Britain and China that such a scenario is unacceptable. However, Putin is now resorting to another type of blackmail - he claims to have allegedly been planning to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus for a long time, justifying this by the fact that it has allegedly been agreed with Lukashenka. At the same time he tries not to violate formally the treaty on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons by stationing them at Russian military bases in Belarus. Thus he allegedly does not transfer nuclear weapons to a third country. But in fact Putin violates all norms, as he drags Belarus into nuclear confrontation.

Putin is actually presenting the West with an ultimatum: you stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, and I will not deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. In this way he expects to get at least a respite, a pause in hostilities.

However, the West no longer perceives all of Putin's threats and blackmail. He is not only causing concern, but also counter-actions. Putin's moves are being monitored very closely. The US claims to control all Russian nuclear resources in all sectors - tactical carriers as well as strategic ones in various locations of silo type, mobile carriers, sea-based carriers. China has also raised its voice on avoiding a nuclear catastrophe.

So I think more intensive unofficial talks will follow in response to Putin's blackmail. The messages to Putin that if nuclear weapons are deployed there will be massive blows to Russia's nuclear assets are being sent through Shoigu.

- According to the State Border Service of Ukraine, just over 4,000 soldiers of the occupation army have been transferred to Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. In your opinion, can Putin use the potential of the personnel he has there to organize a new offensive operation from the north of our country?

- Our border guards have recorded a reduction of the Russian military contingent on the territory of Belarus from 9 to 4 thousand. About 5 thousand have already been transferred to the territory of Ukraine. Russia trains mobilized Russians in Belarus for 1-2 months and then sends them to the frontline. In fact, it is a conveyor belt.

- According to The Guardian, Ukrainian crews who were trained in the UK on Challenger 2 tanks have returned to Ukraine. These tanks are expected to be used during a major counterattack by our army. How important will the tank component be in the future counteroffensive?

- I think a comprehensive use of all weapons should be considered. Tanks alone do not solve anything. Powerful fists - tanks, armoured vehicles - it is, of course, a complex of all means. The tanks we get from the West as well as our tanks.

It goes without saying that western tanks are both technologically and in terms of combat power considerably superior to any Russian tanks, including the T-90 tanks that are already burning on the battlefield. They have a range of up to 6 kilometres and are very manoeuvrable. The tank component is therefore very powerful for offensive operations.

Along with that about 250-300 APCs and BMPs, which can also destroy enemy tanks, as well as other armoured vehicles, will be involved in the counterattack. Then of course there are also the long-range missiles that will destroy the enemy's reserves in the rear, the same tanks that will most likely be travelling on platforms.

Tanks are the kind of force that will act as a strike force along strategic lines or conduct a very quick encirclement of enemy troops. This can cause panic in the enemy camp and their flight from the battlefield. It is very effective, but only in conjunction with other assets, primarily missile assets, as well as our strike brigades.

- According to an Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysis, Putin still expects to win this war through two components: by imposing his will on the Ukrainians by force or by breaking it once "the West has abandoned Kyiv". Do you admit that Western military aid to Ukraine could really stop? Do you think the Kremlin has a theoretical chance of success?

- The Institute for the Study of War has also considered a third scenario - the termination of assistance at a certain stage, with the status quo being preserved, at some stage more beneficial for Ukraine, but not at the stage of final victory.

However, in this situation I believe that the West actually has no choice. All the efforts of Ukraine's partners are united. The aggressive regime in Russia already threatens not only our country, but also Europe and NATO countries. Given the nuclear blackmail, it also poses a threat to the entire world.

Putin's hypothetical victory in Ukraine threatens Poland and other countries. That is why our country is being very actively supported so that the Ukrainian army can win on the battlefield. At the same time, the West will combine all political efforts to cut Putin down to size so that his regime either finally falls or that it completely leaves the territory of Ukraine.

His latest nuclear rhetoric has further united the West. Elites in the West are determined that the aggressor must be held accountable. Hence Ukraine's assurance that aid will continue for as long as necessary. And the increase in production, the increase in purchases, especially of ammunition, and the construction of new factories all indicate that the West is counting on the long term.

All tools have now been activated. Putin has drawn the fire upon himself. He wanted to make a provision to NATO, to Europe, and it came out the other way round. The consequences for him will be very serious. There is no prospect for Putin.