AFU Colonel: Russian Grouping In South Is Being Driven Into Operational Encirclement

The Ukrainian army has gained access to the coast of the Sea of Azov.

On the night of 22 June there was an explosion on the Chongar bridge, which connects the Ukrainian mainland with the Crimean peninsula. The bridge is used for communication between the occupation base in Crimea and Russian troops in Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts. The situation partly resembles the story of last year's attacks on the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson, but in reality it opens up more opportunities for the AFU to "drive" the Russians into an operational encirclement of the peninsula with the prospect of reaching the coast of the Sea of Azov.

A military expert, retired army colonel Roman Svitan, writes about the details of the Ukrainian forces' operation in the south in an article for Apostrof:

- The attack on the bridge in Chongar can be called a preliminary shot. Some are already comparing it to the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson, which began the occupation of the right bank of the Dnipro, but here the situation is more complicated in military and strategic terms.

Judging by the nature of the damage to the Chongar bridge, the yield of the explosion was about 100-200 kg of TNT equivalent. The missile damaged the bridge and exploded from below, so there are several possibilities. Most likely the GLSDB or Storm Shadow missile hit it. Less likely, but still possible, is that a glide bomb or a Harpoon missile could have done the damage.

GLSDB and Storm Shadow come to mind, as they have been used in the south of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

The fact that bridges in occupied Crimea have been hit is important here. The Chongar bridge is blocked and the damage is serious. Cargoes that would have gone to Melitopol and on to the occupied territories have been diverted via Perekop and Armyansk. The Russians have an increased 'supply shoulder', which increases their logistical risks. There is also a road through Armyansk to Kherson, which is a dead end for the occupiers, with the AFU on one side and the areas they themselves have flooded on the other.

The occupiers can move forces to Melitopol by the route they took along the Arabatska Strelka via Gengorka (Genicheskaya Gorka), but the road there is narrow and Storm Shadow can also reach it.

But this is just the beginning. We will see more strikes against enemy positions and their logistical routes in Crimea. We have started with Chongar, but we should already be actively "probing" the so-called "Crimean bridge" across the Kerch Strait. It is precisely this artery through which some 30% of all Russian combat ammunition for the occupying contingent in Ukraine passes that should be cut.

If we cut the Kerch-Feodosia-Dzhankoy-Chongar-Melitopol logistical route in several places, or at least "hammer" it constantly, it is important to understand that we will make it much easier for the Ukrainian defence forces to move along the Orekhovo-Tokmak line. It is possible to go on to Melitopol, but the Russians have entrenched themselves there quite seriously and it is simply foolish for us to act as Wagner did at Bakhmutov. Unlike Prigozhin, Shoigu, Gerasimov and other 'warlords', we are saving men and equipment, but not losing the tempo of the battle.