Where Is Russian Aviation?

About successful Ukrainian drone attacks

Russian authorities reported an attack by two unidentified drones on targets in Volgograd. One UAV "fell" on Lukoil's Volgograd refinery, the largest in the Southern Federal District. Its annual refining capacity is 14.8 million tonnes of oil.

It is not yet known exactly what damage the refinery received, the enterprise itself is cyclopean (those who wish can look on the map).

In a comment to a Volgograd publication, a professor from the Russian State Oil and Gas University named after Gubkin (the leading university in the industry) noted that, judging by the video and photos, the drone attack hit the ELOU-AVT-5 unit. It is at the beginning of several oil refining chains with a volume of 3.5 million tonnes. Accordingly, all these chains will be affected.

There are several such units at the refinery, i.e. the enterprise will continue to operate, but with smaller volumes. If the fire affected mainly tanks, it is unpleasant, but not terrible. If the process equipment is damaged - there will be problems, long repairs will be required.

I would remind you that a fortnight ago there was a serious breakdown at another major Lukoil enterprise, the Nizhny Novgorod Refinery (17 million tonnes per year). The repair will take at least a month and a half. The first serious victim of sanctions.

In addition, the following refineries have been attacked and significantly affected since the beginning of the year:

Tuapse refinery (Rosneft)

Oil depot in Klintsy (Rosneft)

Chemical terminal in the port of Ust-Luga (Novatek)

"A UAV shot down from the S-400 complex" "fell" on the territory of the Nevsky Mazut enterprise in St. Petersburg.

The Russian authorities also reported that a certain UAV hit the tank of the oil terminal at the station of "Zhecha" in Bryansk region (RussNeft company), but did not explode. It has flown down once - it will fly down again.

In January the Russian Federation reduced export of oil products by almost 30%. February has just begun. The background for Putin's extension is not a winning one.

Due to the apparently increased capabilities of unknown UAVs to attack objects in Russia at a depth of up to 800 km (the Volgograd refinery is 500 km straight line from the nearest possible launch point in Ukraine, although it could have come from anywhere), the problem of defence becomes more acute.

It is impossible to defend with ground-based air defences, because the territory is huge. The question arises: where is the Russian aviation? Do they not have time to detect it? Do not have time to go up and hit?

The Russians will inevitably be forced to strengthen a certain regime of aviation combat patrolling at a distance of 200 km+ from the border with Ukraine. Because closer is already scary. However, are they capable of doing it effectively?

Firing long-range missiles with impunity on peaceful cities is one thing. But catching and destroying UAVs over their territory is another. Given that Rosaviation regularly bombs its own cities, it is not yet known who will cause more damage.

Less air defence and aviation near the front line is better for the AFU. Not to mention the direct consequences for the Russian budget.

Oleksiy Kopytko, Facebook