Oil Production In Russia Has Fallen For The 10th Consecutive Month
- 13.10.2026, 18:50
This was facilitated by Ukraine's strikes.
It will soon be a year since oil production in Russia has been declining continuously. According to OPEC data, in September, the average daily output fell for the 10th consecutive month—by 38,000 barrels compared to August, when the decline was 174,000. Due to Ukrainian strikes on refineries, oil terminals, and storage facilities, Russian companies are unable to transport, store, and process oil at the volumes they otherwise could. As a result, they are forced to limit production, which, in turn, reduces budget revenues from the main resource tax—the mineral extraction tax (MET), reports The Moscow Times.
As a result, actual average daily production stood at 1.306 million barrels, or 13.2% below Russia’s OPEC+ quota, notes Bloomberg. The cartel and its partners began increasing quotas in the spring of 2025. Starting in March 2026, when the war with Iran began, Russia’s average daily production under its quota could have increased by 380,000 barrels; instead, it fell by 500,000 barrels.
Since the last peak in production in November 2025, it has already declined by 740,000 barrels per day, according to OPEC. The cartel traditionally estimates its partner’s output higher than the International Energy Agency. According to the IEA, Russian production stood at 8.34 million barrels per day as early as August—compared to OPEC’s estimate of 8.68 million (the IEA will publish its September report on October 14).
The IEA also estimates the overall scale of the decline to be greater—nearly 1 million barrels—specifically 940,000 per day (compared to 740,000 according to OPEC data).
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