Three Dates That Could Change The Course Of The War In Ukraine
- 21.10.2026, 8:08
The Atlantic revealed the key points.
The next eight weeks could be critical for Ukraine. With winter approaching, the threat of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, and a shift in U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance toward Moscow, Kyiv is closely monitoring three political developments in the U.S. and Asia. This is discussed in an article by the American publication The Atlantic, published on October 20, 2026.
According to The Atlantic, Ukraine’s future will be determined by 2027 due to events beyond its borders. These events pertain to U.S. domestic policy, Trump’s contacts with Putin and China, as well as possible negotiations to end the war.
U.S. Congressional Elections — November 3
The first major event will be U.S. midterm elections, during which Americans will elect a new House of Representatives and a portion of the Senate. The results of the elections, scheduled for early November, will determine whether Republicans will retain control of both chambers of Congress or whether Democrats will be able to secure a majority in at least one of them.
According to reporters Jonathan Lemire and Simon Shuster, representatives from both parties predict a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives, while the outcome of the race for the Senate remains uncertain.
In Kyiv, there is hope that a stronger Democratic presence could limit Trump’s ability to exert pressure on Ukraine. At the same time, there are concerns that the U.S. president, having lost congressional support, will focus on foreign policy, where he has more freedom to make independent decisions.
The new Congress will not begin its work until January 3, 2027. Until then, Trump will be able to act without being influenced by the new balance of power in the legislature.
A meeting between Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping in China is possible
The second important point is the trilateral meeting proposed by Putin with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. According to The Atlantic, it could take place in mid-November in Shenzhen, China, as part of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
Among the possible topics for the meeting are Russia’s war against Ukraine and ways to end it. However, under the proposed format, Ukraine would not have a seat at the negotiating table.
This is causing concern in Kyiv, as the major powers may attempt to negotiate the division of spheres of influence without taking into account the position of the country on whose territory the war is still being waged.
One Ukrainian official, quoted by The Atlantic, described these concerns as follows: “Our concern is that they view this as a new Yalta Conference to divide the world into spheres of influence.”
This refers to a historical analogy with the 1945 Yalta Conference, at which the leaders of the USSR, the U.S., and the U.K. discussed the postwar order in Europe.
Trump told reporters that he is willing to consider attending the meeting. For him, this would be the first face-to-face meeting with Putin since the talks in Alaska in August 2025, which, according to the publication, yielded no results.
The “Group of Twenty” summit in December and possible peace talks
A third important event could be the “Group of Twenty” (G20), scheduled for mid-December near Miami, Florida, at Trump’s golf club. According to The Atlantic, Donald Trump views this meeting as an opportunity to reach an agreement to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The President of Ukraine has already agreed to attend the summit and has stated his willingness to meet with Putin to end the war. However, as of this writing, the Russian dictator has not yet confirmed his attendance.
Incidentally, Putin’s possible presence at the summit carries symbolic significance. If he participates in a multilateral meeting in a Western country, it would mark his first such visit since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, writes The Atlantic.
At the same time, the main question is not only whether the meeting will take place, but also what conditions might be proposed to the parties. Kyiv has previously rejected territorial concessions, in particular, relinquishing its claims to the Donbas. The authors of the article warn that, under a certain scenario, the negotiations could turn not into a search for a mutually acceptable agreement, but into forcing Ukraine to accept unfavorable terms.
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