ISW: Ukrainian Armed Forces Launch Counterattacks On Two Key Fronts

Even Russian military bloggers acknowledge Ukraine's successes.

Counterattacks by the Defense Forces in the Slavyansk and Kramatorsk sectors could trigger a chain reaction and have serious consequences for Russia’s attempts to capture the “belt of fortresses.” This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the ISW, Russian military bloggers acknowledge that counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the Slavyansk direction are pushing the prospect of Russian troops reaching the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk metropolitan area into the very distant future. An offensive from Seversk toward Slavyansk, in their view, may be “doomed” to failure or result in massive casualties if Russian troops fail to regain control of the forested areas south of Liman.

The ISW notes that Ukrainian Armed Forces counterattacks east of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk metropolitan area appear to be supporting the Ukrainian “Vivaldi” operation in the Liman direction and are hindering Russia’s attempts to capture the “belt of fortresses.”

Russian military bloggers have acknowledged the advance of Ukrainian troops east of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. According to their reports, Ukrainian forces have liberated Ozerne, advanced east of Piskunovka toward Kryva Luka, and also north of Rai-Oleksandrivka. The bloggers also acknowledged that Ukrainian troops had driven Russian units out of Piskunovka and were conducting a counterattack toward Krivaya Luka after crossing the Seversky Donets River.

According to recent reports from the bloggers, Ukrainian forces have also advanced immediately east of Nikolaevka, liberated Malinovka, and advanced in the area between Fedorivka Druha and Holubivka, as well as into the southern part of Minkivka and the Fedorivka area.

However, the positions of the opposing sides likely remain mixed, the ISW notes.

Analysts emphasize the significance of reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Seversky Donets River, as it is a major natural barrier. Apparently, in the Kryva Luka area, Ukrainian troops managed to dislodge Russian units from both the right and left banks of the Seversky Donets.

The ISW notes that Russian forces likely view Nikolaevka as a key tactical objective: the high ground there provides favorable conditions for an offensive on Slavyansk. However, attempts by Ukrainian forces to dislodge Russian troops from areas to the northeast and southeast of Nikolaevka are preventing the Russians from taking advantage of the local terrain.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ successful counterattacks in the Kramatorsk and Slavyansk directions may indicate a larger-scale effort by the Ukrainian side to push Russian troops eastward — away from the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk metropolitan area toward the Seversky Donets–Donbas Canal,” analysts believe.

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