"Lukashenko Is Talking About Mobilization Because He Understood Putin's Hint"

A Ukrainian diplomat explained what could be behind the dictator's new military statements.

Lukashenko announced the "mobilization" and said Belarus should prepare for war. Ukraine has already warned that the Kremlin could again use Lukashenko's regime to attack neighboring countries.

What do Lukashenko's words about "mobilization" and preparing the army for war mean? The site Charter97.org asked this and other topical questions to Ukrainian diplomat and political scientist, director of the Center for Defense Strategies Alexander Hare:

- It is difficult to rationally explain this behavior of Lukashenko for a simple reason: if anyone threatens Belarus militarily or otherwise, it is the Russian Federation, which is the aggressor against Ukraine and has dragged Belarus into it.

Factually, dictator Lukashenko has agreed to become an international criminal by allowing his territory and infrastructure to be used to attack Ukraine. This is not my emotional assessment, it is an assessment of UN General Assembly Resolution 31/14, which defined what constitutes aggression, including providing one's territory to a third party for an act of aggression.

- What could Putin be preparing by using Lukashenko's regime? Can the Kremlin use Belarus again in a war against Ukraine?"

- It is clear that no Poland, Lithuania, Estonia or other European countries are definitely not going to attack Belarus. It is another matter if the Russian Federation has plans of horizontal escalation, i.e. transferring the conflict or the beginning of the conflict to the territories of other states in order to divert attention from its problems in Ukraine.

or escalate in such a way that then eventually to achieve a new status quo with great positive aspects for the Russian Federation. Then, of course, Belarus can be used as a territory and its resources, including human and military ones, in order to achieve such a goal and use it as an instrument of escalation.

There are no other reasons for Belarusians to worry about the war, except the fact that Russia will drag it into the war and has already tried to do so. By and large, the Belarusians have no other real threats along their borders.

When Lukashenko talks about point mobilization, perhaps he is trying to react to how the nature of the war in Ukraine has changed over these five years. Obviously, there is a little less sovkovosti, which was quite a lot in Russia in 2022-2023. And I am sure that there is quite a lot of it in the Belarusian armed forces, as we understand very well what kind of leadership they are. That is, the top military leadership of the Belarusian army is people who studied in Russia, were brought up on World War II and so on. They think in terms of Russian battalion and tactical groups, formation, wide columns and so on. And the war has changed dramatically, and, accordingly, adjustments must be made.

There is no point in threatening our neighbors with large-scale exercises, as Putin and his handmaiden Lukashenko have been doing for the past dozens of years. There is no sense in that. Naturally, we should prepare our armed forces for a modern conflict.

And here it makes sense to revise the troops. But this is not called point mobilization. It should be called reforming the security and defense sector. Reforming the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus in order to meet modern conditions. But it is definitely not mobilization.

It is quite possible that Putin hinted and Lukashenko realized that the conflict may expand and Belarus may be drawn into the conflict. And, accordingly, he has to do something. Although I have said it more than once: Lukashenko, of course, is a criminal, but he is not an idiot. He understands perfectly well that "stability" and his regime are holding on, but they may suffer if Belarus officially or otherwise becomes part of the aggression against Ukraine.

Since one story is the generals, who can see the world just as Moscow does. And the other is the Belarusians who make up the army units may not think that way at all and may not imagine such a situation when Belarusians would turn their weapons against Ukrainians.

And in any case, no matter how powerful a country is, the first coffins that come into it begin to erode support for the regime. And here it makes no difference whether the regime is democratic, authoritarian or totalitarian. In any case, this is a serious blow.

I think this is the key point why Lukashenko did not join Putin in 2022 and later. Theoretically, he could have joined if the Russians had already entered Kiev and there was virtually nothing left of the Ukrainian state. Lukashenko could have shown the flag: he too, they say, was such an ally who helped and was willing to take risks.

But that didn't happen. That's why we don't see official Belarusian units on the territory of Ukraine, which are fighting against Ukraine. Thank God that we see Belarusians who are fighting for their and our freedom in the Kalinovsky regiment. And, naturally, they can theoretically be a threat to Lukashenko. In any case, if we talk about some kind of point mobilization, it is definitely not prepared for this type of threat.

From the side of Ukraine, we are definitely not going to launch any strikes against Belarus, although Lukashenko's regime deserves a response. There are drones and missiles flying through Belarus, and by and large, Belarus' military infrastructure is included in Russia's aid. I'm not talking about circumventing sanctions and so on. But in any case, Ukraine has no aggressive plans against Belarus - neither to destroy it, nor to annex it. Therefore, when Lukashenko talks about point mobilization, it is not clear to me what he is talking about.

Nobody threatens Belarus unless it becomes a threat to someone else - Ukraine or members of the European Union and NATO - as a tool of the Russian Federation. Then, of course, Lukashenko needs to mobilize someone.

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