Vitaly Portnikov On The Threat From Belarus: It Can Happen At Any Moment

The Russians may start launching drones and missiles from the Belarusian territory.

Ukraine said it is preparing a response to a possible Russian offensive in the Chernihiv-Kiev region. The country's foreign ministry and intelligence agency have been instructed to develop steps against Lukashenko's regime.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has also ordered the border with Belarus to be reinforced.

Is Ukraine now in danger from Lukashenko's regime? Well-known Ukrainian journalist and political analyst Vitaliy Portnikov talked about it with Apostrof TV. The site Charter97.org quotes a fragment of the conversation:

- In order to talk about the danger from Belarus, we need to operate with some figures, facts, not politicians' statements. It's the same as it was in 2022: there were politicians' statements that there would be no attack. And there was the situation with the grouping of troops on the territory of Belarus.

We knew its number, there was a question as to what extent with such a grouping an attack on Kiev could be carried out, because it was clearly not enough to capture the Ukrainian capital, but then we realized that Putin in his idea of how the "SWO" should take place, was preparing for a parade, not for multi-day battles in the vicinity of Kiev.

That's why the number of troops he amassed in Belarus was, from the point of view of the Russian political leadership (not the military), sufficient for a change of power.

It was Russia's mistake, and Ukraine's mistake not to realize that Putin could use just that many troops to attack. But then the situation was different in that we were getting agency information from Western intelligence services. Such information is based not only on the number of troops, but also on real conversations: documents, plans of attack, messages from agents in Putin's or Lukashenko's inner circle. All this could have been at the disposal of the Americans. They could have informed the Ukrainian leadership, but it did not believe them.

Now we are dealing with Zelensky's statements. We cannot speak about a significant increase of the Russian grouping on the territory of Belarus, which would indicate the possibility of a quick attack. There are no such facts. If there are no facts, I am not ready to comment on the President's statements about the theoretical intentions of the Russians.

There may be another threat, when UAVs or missile strikes will come from the territory of Belarus. For this purpose, it is necessary to have the relevant batteries and units located there. This just might happen at any moment.

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