Vitaly Portnikov: You Should Not Believe Lukashenko's Promises
- 1.06.2026, 11:54
- 1,558
It is not he who disposes of the territory of Belarus.
The probability of strikes by missiles and drones from the territory of Belarus on the territory of Ukraine is quite high. This was stated by a well-known Ukrainian journalist and political analyst Vitaliy Portnikov.
The website Charter97.org quotes a fragment of his speech on the YouTube channel "Portnikov. Argumenty".
"It was from the territory of Belarus that troops marched to the Ukrainian land, which received from Vladimir Putin the task to occupy the Ukrainian capital, destroy the legitimate Ukrainian authorities and hand over the reins of power to the Russian puppets of former President Viktor Yanukovych and former head of the Ukrainian presidential administration Viktor Medvedchuk," he recalls. - The puppets' task was to hold referendums in most of Ukraine on the accession of Ukrainian regions to the Russian Federation as subjects and to turn the remaining territory of Ukraine into part of a union state with Russia and Belarus. By the way, the configuration of this union state would, of course, also be decided in the Russian capital, not in the Belarusian or Ukrainian capital.
So, from this point on, it became obvious that Alexander Lukashenko's political autonomy was significantly limited. Not from 2022, of course, but from 2020, when the dictator suppressed the uprising of his own citizens who protested against yet another grossly rigged presidential election in the country and thus found himself critically dependent on economic aid from Russia and political support from the Russian leadership. So Lukashenko's statements about non-aggression from the Belarusian territory have no fundamental significance for the simple reason that it is not Lukashenko who disposes of the territory of Belarus.
On the land of his own country Lukashenko has finally turned from a president into a governor, who fulfills any decisions of the president of the Russian Federation, political and military leadership of Russia. And until we get an answer to the question, whether there will be an invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, it would be extremely imprudent to believe that the Belarusian direction is not critical for the Ukrainian army. And it is not Alexander Lukashenko who can give an answer to this question.
The only person who can give an answer to the question whether there will be a new attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus is the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. And here again we can analyze how much the Russian president needs such an attack. After all, to reach Kiev or Chernigov as Putin planned in February 2022 was not possible then and will not be possible now, when the Ukrainian troops are preparing for a possible similar turn of events.
And if in 2022 it was impossible to imagine that Ukraine will strike at the Belarusian territory, now it is impossible to imagine that Ukraine will not strike at the Belarusian territory in case of a new attack on Ukraine from this territory. And thus Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko will have to say goodbye to Belarusian oil refining, which is necessary for the armed forces of the Russian Federation to continue the war against Ukraine. Thus, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko will have to say goodbye to those exclusive contacts that Alexander Lukashenko is establishing with the administration of American President Donald Trump in favor of the administration of Vladimir Putin.
We understand perfectly well that it is one thing for regular Russian troops to invade from the Belarusian territory, and quite another for missiles and drones to strike the territory of Ukraine from the territory of the Republic of Belarus. This is unlikely to affect U.S.-Belarusian contacts seriously enough, and thus could become a danger at any moment."
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