"There Could Be A Window Of Opportunity In The Fall."

The Kremlin will be faced with a choice.

The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov said that Vladimir Zelensky instructed him to try to end hostilities and start negotiations before winter.

The Ukrainian president also said that there is now a window of opportunity for peace.

Do you see this window of opportunity? About this and not only the site Charter97.org talked to a well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Center for Applied Political Research "Penta" Vladimir Fesenko:

- I see a window of opportunity, but not now, and not before the fall. The fact is that now it is more about trying to restore the negotiation process. What is happening now, including Zelensky's assignment of Budanov, as well as Umerov, to Ukrainian negotiators, is due to the fact that negotiations are on pause, but Zelensky is demonstrating that he is not giving up on them, but wants the war to end in a negotiated way.

A corresponding signal he is sending to the Americans, because without the role of the U.S. and Trump personally, it will not be possible to restore negotiations. Therefore, what is happening now, these statements by Zelensky, is more like, I would say, a prelude, a preparation for an attempt to resuscitate the negotiation process.

- Why do you say that the window of opportunity will not appear before the fall?

- As of today, unfortunately, as Budanov and Zelensky especially recognize, we see that Putin is not ready to conduct real negotiations.

The strike on Kiev that night, the previous strikes, and Putin's statement that he made in Kazakhstan all indicate that the Kremlin is actually betting on war. It's hoping for a summer offensive by the Russian army, for air strikes against Ukraine, because we have a shortage of interceptor missiles right now.

Putin wants to take advantage of that, so the most likely way Russia will try to break Ukrainian resistance in the summer is through a summer military offensive and intensifying the air war against Ukraine.

The bet is on that, so for now Putin is not ready for real negotiations. He wants to either achieve a military victory over Ukraine or get Russia's bargaining position strengthened because it is now clearly weakened. Therefore, we should not expect real agreements in the summer.

There may be attempts to resume negotiations, and Ukraine will undertake them, and perhaps the Americans as well, but after the negotiation epic with Iran is over. I emphasize, Russia is not ready for real negotiations yet. But why could there be a window of opportunity in the fall? If we manage to stop (and there are preconditions for this) the Russian offensive.

The Russian offensive attempt failed in the spring. Here in May, the low rate of advance of Russian troops was recorded. Only 14 square kilometers managed to capture for the whole month. This is the worst indicator for Russia since October 2023, for two and a half years. Now Ukraine has also found a very effective tactic - "mid-strikes", strikes on the near rear.

In Crimea there is a fuel crisis, the Mariupol-Crimea road is blocked by fire. They are hitting the near rear in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. This weakens the possibility for Russia to launch military offensives in the summer.

If the Ukrainian troops manage to maintain the trend that appeared in the spring, and manage to freeze the front, and maybe even in some areas go on a counter-offensive, this could certainly change the military situation. The military situation is actually stalemate now. If this stalemate remains until the fall, then the Kremlin will face a choice (in fact, it already has): either negotiations or escalation of the war.

If the attempt to escalate the war, which is currently underway, fails, then the need for negotiations will become more real. This is the first factor. The second factor is the deterioration of the internal Russian situation.

This is already manifesting itself. There are signs of financial crisis. Even rising oil prices have not helped the Kremlin much.

- Could these problems push Putin toward peace talks?

- If the war in Iran stops and oil prices start to fall, it will only make the financial situation worse for the Kremlin. If war fatigue, dissatisfaction with the consequences of the war, including the fuel crisis, is not only in Crimea, but also begins to manifest itself in Moscow, in the central regions of Russia, then this could also strengthen anti-war sentiment and push the Kremlin toward real negotiations.

Another factor: Zelensky also talks about increased sanctions and political pressure on Putin. This, too, could work. Although we see that direct pressure on Putin is not working.

There I'm betting more on the fact that Trump may change his approach somewhat and his administration as well. They may now be betting not on the Donbass negotiations as they have in the past. Those negotiations have stalled. They can bet on ceasefire negotiations. That is, to promote this very idea.

If they promote this very approach, to start with a ceasefire, maybe a phased, sectoral ceasefire, for example, a cessation of air war or a cessation of strikes on energy. That's quite possible. So if Trump will actively promote such approaches, and Putin, due to internal circumstances and the stalemate in the war, will accept this approach, then there will be this window of opportunity.

Why the fall is still, also an important point - in November, the midterm elections to the U.S. Congress, so Kiev is very hopeful that Trump will intensify his negotiating efforts just in the late summer-early fall. It would be advantageous for him to gain a diplomatic victory by ending the Russian-Kkrainian war, but it would also be in Ukraine's interests if such an end is on a compromise basis.

- The South Morning Post writes that US President Donald Trump has asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to influence Putin to return to the negotiating table. Can Beijing influence the Kremlin?"

- Look, this was written by a well-known newspaper from Hong Kong, but it's clearly a leak from Beijing that shows how supposedly great Xi Jinping is, that Trump himself is asking him to end the war. That's the sense of this publication. Trump has approached Xi Jinping several times, just maybe forgot about it already. There is no sensation here.

Even when Trump was elected president, in December 2024, he already publicly wrote on his social network, addressing Xi Jinping, that we should jointly help to end the war in Ukraine. Then there were several more times such appeals were publicly made, they are not leaks like now.

Because neither Trump nor Xi Jinping said anything about how they discussed the Russian-Ukrainian war, they just discussed and that's all, and nothing more. But Trump's addresses were indeed, and not just Trump, Macron addressed Xi Jinping, and so what? Nothing. Xi Jinping is not interfering in this war, nor is he interfering in the negotiation process.

He will not help Trump and the Americans. Because, why would he? Trump is a geopolitical competitor, why help him? Therefore, no. If China will actively participate in the negotiation process, it will do so only when the Americans are not there, or if they realize that there is a real possibility of ending the war, and it is China that can act as the final decisive factor.

There is no such situation, so China's role in this case will not be decisive. So far, the role of the main violin and the main moderator in the negotiation process remains with the United States.

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