"The Kremlin Can Only Break One Thing."

Which will force Russia to negotiate.

The coming months may become decisive for the future course of the war, because the situation at the front and the results of the Russian offensive can significantly affect not only the military, but also the political and economic situation. In an interview with "Glavred", political scientist and expert on Central and Eastern Europe Ivan Preobrazhensky told about this.

"Since we are talking about war, there is no point in talking in this case about the economy and even politics, about some splits of elites, etc. The most key possibility is the obvious, profound failure of the Russian offensive attempt. Like in 2023, everyone expected Ukraine to launch a powerful counteroffensive, but it came to naught. This has dramatically reduced the level of optimism, in particular - and most importantly - among Ukraine's allies, not even so much among Ukraine itself. Approximately the same is possible with regard to Russia," he said.

Politologist Preobrazhensky also noted that in case of an obvious failure of the Russian offensive and significant inconclusive losses, large-scale processes may begin both inside and outside Russia. In his opinion, this could prompt Moscow's external partners, particularly China, to increase pressure on the Kremlin over fears of a final military defeat for Russia and force Putin to agree to negotiations on still acceptable terms. Another possible scenario involves the activation of the Russian leader's entourage, which could hold him responsible for the failure of the offensive campaign.

The expert also suggests that such a development could provoke serious economic turmoil. According to his assessment, the Russian military-industrial complex is currently largely dependent on state subsidies and functions thanks to preparations for offensive actions.

In Preobrazhensky's opinion, if it becomes obvious that further offensive action is impossible, and the front has actually stabilized without prospects for significant changes, this could start a chain reaction and cause a large-scale decline in the Russian economy. This is the scenario he considers the most likely path to radical change.

"There is a second option - a negative one. This is if the Russian offensive proves extremely successful. Russia will be able to finally get Donald Trump back to Ukraine from Iran, and there will be some kind of peace agreement regarding Iran. And through joint diplomatic efforts, for example, it will get Ukraine, for lack of arms, to agree to hold elections or something like that. This will also be a radical but not positive change if Ukraine manages to be forced to do something," he concluded.

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